Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - February 2026
Insights from the February 2026 Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, how is the economy affecting people’s lives in Scotland, what will it mean for the election?
Published: 25th February 2026
The final Understanding the Scotland Economy tracker before the May Scottish Parliament elections shows how Scots are experiencing the economy and what they want to see prioritised in party manifestos.
While pessimistic economic sentiment has softened slightly since November, financial strain remains and the cost of living looks likely to remain salient to the campaign ahead.
Pre-Election Priorities
The last tracker before the Scottish Parliament elections reveals that the cost of living and the NHS remain the most important issues to voters. Half (48%) of respondents to the survey, commissioned by the David Hume Institute and produced by the Diffley Partnership, cite healthcare and the NHS as a top priority. Near half (43%) said that the cost of living and inflation should be a national priority, a five percent increase since the most recent quarterly tracker.
Economic Pressures Easing Slightly
Pessimism still dominates the overall economic outlook, with less than one in ten (7%) thinking economic conditions will be better in a year than today. However, sentiment is markedly less pessimistic than it has been across the past two years.
For instance, while three in five (62%) think that general economic conditions are worse now than they were a year ago, this is a seven percent drop since November. Looking ahead, two in three (66%) expect conditions to worsen in the next twelve months, down from three in four (73%) previously.
Financial Strain Remains
While overall economic sentiment has improved at the start of the year, financial strain is still widespread and penetrating the actions and spending of everyday life for many. The majority (52%) report recently cutting non-essential spending, while nearly one in three (31%) say that money worries are impacting their mental health, a three percent rise and among the highest rates since the tracker began.
Looking ahead, concerns about essential costs increasing remain. In the year ahead, over two thirds (69%) expect higher utility bills, one in two (50%) expect to spend more on food and drink and around the same (49%) anticipate spending more on their housing.
Scots sceptical about how the economy works
New data from the tracker indicates that whoever forms the next Government may need to focus on rebuilding faith that Scotland’s economy can work in the interests of the majority of the people that live here. Seven in ten (71%) believes the economy works primarily in the interests of the wealthy, while just one in fourteen (7%) believes the economy works for most people. Just one in twelve (8%) thinks the economic system works for them.
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - November 2025
Insights from the November 2025 Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, how is the economy affecting people’s lives in Scotland?
Published 23rd November 2025
The latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker reveals low optimism about the economy and highlights how these concerns are shaping everyday life.
With the Scottish Parliament election half a year away, seven out of ten Scots (69%) say that economic conditions are worse today than a year ago.
This quarterly survey, commissioned by the David Hume Institute and produced by the Diffley Partnership, is the final wave of 2025. A summary of key findings in the report is presented below.
Pessimistic Economic Outlook
As the UK budget looms, pessimism about the economy has increased since the last survey, with nearly three quarters (73%) of respondents expecting conditions to worsen in the year ahead. Overall gloomy sentiment has hardened, with the proportion of respondents reporting a deterioration of general economic conditions at its highest rate since November 2023.
Households Bracing for Pressures Ahead
New data revealed in the latest tracker demonstrates the impacts that concerns over Scotland’s economy bring households across the country.
Four out of five (84%) report some form of negative impact to their everyday life from concerns about money in the past year. With the winter months underway, one in five Scots (18%) report impacts to their physical health from money matters and nearly half (47%) say financial concerns have reduced their heating use in the past year.
The tracker also indicates that younger people and those with children are more likely to report significant impacts to everyday life from money concerns. Households with children are nearly 10% more likely to report negative changes in behaviour and spending habits than those without. There is a similar difference between younger people (16-34) and older people (65+).
Low Labour Market Expectations
Heading into a new year, expectations for the labour market in the next twelve months remain low. Fewer than one in ten (9%) agree there will be more job opportunities in the year ahead, with seven in ten (70%) disagreeing.
Data from the tracker also demonstrates underlying concerns about preparedness for any new roles. While a majority of respondents (56%) think they would need to retrain or up-skill to get a new job, nearly a quarter (22%) report receiving no training in their current job since their initial induction.
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2025
Read insights from the May 2025 Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, what do people think about the economy and how is affecting their life in Scotland?
Published 27th May 2025
Economic Outlook
The latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker highlights the precarious financial position of many Scots. Significant numbers of people are just one unexpected bill away from crisis.
1 in 5 Scots cannot cover an emergency expense of £100 without borrowing money
This figure doubles to 44% for a £500 emergency, demonstrating a widespread lack of financial resilience.
Overall there is an increase in people believing that both general economic conditions and their own financial circumstances will get worse in the coming 12 months.
Top priorities and issues
The latest survey found that healthcare and the cost of living remain as the most pressing issues, cited by one in two and one in three respectively. The next most cited issue is poverty (17%).
However, for the first time since the tracker began in October 2021, immigration has joined the top five public concerns. Immigration is now ranked as a top issue by 16% of Scots - up six percentage points since May 2024 and is now equal with the economy.
The top five priorities listed by survey respondents are:
Healthcare 49%
Cost of living 36%
Poverty 17%
Immigration 16%
Economy 16%
More insights from the research
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - February 2025
Our latest independent economic tracker reveals the economy is emerging as a key priority as 62% of Scots say conditions have worsened in past year.
Published Monday 24th February 2025
Our latest independent quarterly tracker has revealed the economy is emerging as a key priority as 62% of Scots say conditions have worsened in past year.
Key findings:
Health care and the cost of living remain top priorities, with the economy emerging as a high priority for Scots
Healthcare continues to dominate as the most pressing issue for Scots, increasing by four percentage points to 50% naming it as a priority. Cost of living remains stable at 34%. Meanwhile, the proportion identifying the economy as a priority has risen by four percentage points to 20% after hitting a low of 16% in November 2024.
Glimmers of optimism as more Scots see the country heading in the right direction
While 53% of Scots still believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, this is down three percentage points from the last wave. At the same time, optimism is growing, with 24% now saying Scotland is on the right path - an increase of four percentage points. Meanwhile, 23% remain uncertain, with optimism narrowly overtaking uncertainty for the first time in recent waves.
Economic outlook remains bleak
A majority of Scots (62%) say economic conditions have worsened over the past year, and 64% believe they will deteriorate further in the next year. While this marks a slight decline of one to two percentage points in pessimism since the last wave, optimism has not grown, with fewer than one in ten reporting an improvement in the last year or predicting an improvement over the next year.
Cost-cutting becomes routine but financial strain hits some harder
Spending cutbacks remain widespread, with 53% of Scots reducing leisure activities, 52% cutting non- essential spending, and 45% saving less than usual—figures that have changed little since November 2024. However, financial strain is more pronounced among Scots aged 16-34, those in lower social grades, households with children, and ethnic minorities, particularly affecting their mental health, physical well-being, and sleep.
Signs of recovery for some sectors but non-essential spending cuts persist
Spending reductions are expected to continue this year, particularly in dining out, with 45% cutting back on takeaways and deliveries and 43% on restaurants. However, there are small signs of recovery in certain areas: the proportion expecting to spend more on clothing and footwear is up five percentage points, while leisure and culture and holidays outside the UK have seen increases of three percentage points each.
Three key graphs from the report below.
Image credit: Sharing thumbnail image and report front cover by Sinitta Leunen, free licence from Unsplash 23.02.25
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - November 2024
Our quarterly economic tracker from a panel of over 40,000 people in Scotland reveals green shoots of optimism in August have faded and poses big questions ahead of the Scottish Budget.
Our independent quarterly tracker has revealed that 48% of people living in Scotland believe their financial situation is worse than a year ago.
Since August 2024, there has been a six percentage point rise in people feeling that their own finances have worsened in the last year – with 3 in 10 people (29%) admitting they have lost sleep over money.
While 63% believe that the general economic conditions are worse, up nine percentage points, 65% of people said they believe that the general economic conditions will continue to decline, up 13 points on the last quarter.
The latest results for the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, from the David Hume Institute and polling experts Diffley Partnership, suggest a growing lack of optimism over the last three months and pose big questions for Shona Robison ahead of the Scottish Budget.
The latest edition of the survey from November 2024 shows that:
More than 1 in 6 people (17%) report strained relationships at home because of money
1 in 6 Scots (16%) report an impact on their physical health due to worries about money
1 in 3 people (32%) report an impact on their mental health due to worries about money
Only 15% say that concerns about money matters have not affected them
3 out of 4 people (75%) believe the economy works primarily in the interests of wealthy people
However, there is not a complete lack of optimism with younger Scots more likely to believe that their financial fortunes will turn. Those aged between 16 and 34 appear more optimistic with 25% saying they believe their own economic situation will get better. This compares to just 6% of 45 to 54 year-olds, 8% aged 55 to 64, and 5% of over 65s.
When looking at the policy priorities for Scots, healthcare and the NHS remains the top priority of Scots with nearly half (47%) citing this as one of the top three issues facing Scotland. A third (34%) cite cost of living and inflation, this has declined eight percentage points from November 2023. One in five (19%) put poverty/inequality among the top three issues facing Scotland.
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - August 2024
Our quarterly economic tracker from a panel of over 40,000 people in Scotland reveals green shoots of optimism appearing
29th August 2024
Our independent quarterly tracker has revealed that one in three (36%) people living in Scotland consider the cost of living as one of their top concerns, down 12% on this time last year.
According to the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker from the David Hume Institute and polling experts the Diffley Partnership, while concern about the cost of living has fallen, healthcare remains the key concern for the public, selected by over half (51%) of respondents as a key worry.
The data was collected at the start of August, a month after the General Election, against a backdrop of economic insecurity, mounting concern about public expenditure and a wave of anti-migrant riots.In our first survey since the General Election, data reveals some green shoots of optimism.
Over half (54%) of people in Scotland believe that general economic conditions are worse now than a year ago - a considerable fall from the 2 in 3 (66%) that agreed with this statement in May.
1 in 3 (35%) of those that express an opinion believe that general economic conditions are about the same as they were in August of last year, an increase of 11%.
15% of households with children say they feel better off than a year ago, compared to 10% reporting the same in August 2023 and 9% in August 2022.
Read more:
Press Release - Green shoots of optimism as fewer Scots concerned by cost of living
David Gow's Blog - Are we singing a new song?
Watch the event recording here.
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2024
Latest in the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker series reveals a mixed picture of public opinion of the Economy.
The latest survey from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker series reveals that healthcare and the cost of living are at the forefront of Scottish voters' minds as they get ready to decide how to cast their votes in July.
Latest findings from the series show the top two issues for voters in Scotland are:
one in two Scots (52%) cite healthcare and the NHS
two in five (40%) the cost of living and inflation is a key issue.
A host of other issues remain important to Scots, including poverty/inequality, trust in politics, the economy, and housing, which are regularly selected as top issues facing Scotland by upwards of 15% or more of Scots. However, there are notable changes in prioritisation among these issues, with emphasis on trust in politics rising two percentage points to 18% and emphasis on the economy falling two percentage points to 17%.
The constitution and devolution is reported as a top issue by only 7% of Scots in the latest figures for May 2024.
Read more:
Press release: Health Care and Cost of Living Top Priorities for Scots ahead of General Election.
David Gow’s blog: Shaking off our misery?
Catriona Matheson’s blog: People’s priorities laid our for politicians.
Watch the event recording here.
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - February 2024
Our latest quarterly economy tracker reveals a continuing stark picture of public opinion on the economy.
Our survey shows two in three Scots (67%) have resorted to reducing non-essential purchases, while significant proportions continue measures such as cutting back on energy use (64%) and leisure activities (62%).
Additionally 45% report decreased savings contributions, and over a third are tapping into them for everyday expenses. These coping mechanisms are particularly prevalent among younger age groups, underscoring the disproportionate impact of the high cost of living on working-age individuals.
The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker survey tracks economic attitudes and spending intentions from more than 2,000 members of the Scottish adult population every 3 months. The fast turnaround time, as the data is published two weeks after collection, means early identification of changes in trends to support decision-makers.
The study reveals a cautious outlook among Scots regarding future spending. Both essential and non-essential spending expectations show little change, indicating ongoing caution amidst economic uncertainty.
Furthermore, the latest findings highlight generational divides in priorities. Healthcare and the NHS are paramount among older age groups, whilst younger individuals are more focused on addressing rising living costs.
The study also reveals growing doubts among Scots about Scotland's trajectory, with the majority (58%) believing that the country is heading in the wrong direction. This marks a three-percentage-point increase from the previous wave and reflects an increasing sense of pessimism about the future.
Read more:
Press release - Two thirds of Scots continue to reduce spending.
David Gow’s blog - Scotland’s Generational divide - the economy.
Watch the launch event recording here.
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - November 2023
The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, marks its second birthday, showing many Scots continue to take extreme measures to navigate turbulent economic times.
The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, produced by the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership, marks its second birthday, showing many Scots continue to take extreme measures to navigate turbulent economic times:
1 in 6 people (17%) report skipping meals
1 in 5 people are using ‘buy now pay later’ payment plans
2 out of 3 people (67%) are not putting the heating on to reduce costs
For many, the ongoing challenges with the cost of living are dominating their lives with:
3 in 10 (29%) Scots telling us they are losing sleep due to their personal finances
Many Scots are living with severe financial precarity:
3 in 10 people (28%) are not confident of covering a £100 emergency expense – up three percentage points since February 2023
This rises to 1 in 2 (49%) for an emergency expense of £500
The survey also shows 8 in 10 Scots perceive the economy as favouring the wealthy (78%), while 53% believe it primarily serves business interests. Only 1 in 10 (10%) believe that the economy works in their own interest.
Healthcare (48%) and cost of living (42%) remain among the top concerns for Scots.
Over three-fifths of Scots (62%) view the cost of living and inflation as a key economic priority, though this is down five percentage points from August. Poverty has become a significant concern for 32% of respondents, up three percentage points from August.
The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker survey gathers economic attitudes and insights from more than 2,000 members of the Scottish adult population every 3 months to track changes over time.
Read more:
Press release - Two years of tracking shows Scots struggling with turbulent economic times.
Shan Saba’s blog - Avoiding the cost of living carnage.
Watch the event recording here.
Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2023
The most recent data from the David Hume Institute and Diffley Partnership’s regular economy tracker reveals a mixed picture of public opinion on the economy: 62% of Scots think general economic conditions will be worse in a years’ time and 45% think their personal financial situation will be worse in a years’ time.
The most recent data from the David Hume Institute and Diffley Partnership’s regular economy tracker reveals a mixed picture of public opinion on the economy.
The economic outlook from Scots remains bleak with 62% thinking that general economic conditions will be worse in a years’ time (although this is down very slightly from 66% in February) and 45% think their personal financial situation will be worse in a years’ time (down from 48% in February).
However, while we have seen a reduction in the number of people thinking that things will be worse, optimism is not rising. Many Scots think that the economic outlook will remain the same over the next 12 months suggesting that they think that the costs and challenges they face are here to stay.
Is this a sign of people adjusting to a new normal?
In order to meet increased costs, many Scots are running down their savings, turning to credit and stopping paying into pensions:
4 in 10 Scots (42%) report having taken money out of their savings to
cover higher costs1 in 4 have used a credit card to make for purchases that they wouldn’t
usually1 in % have used ‘buy now pay later’ schemes to cover everyday
spendingA small but increasing number of Scots have stopped contributing to a
pension (7%)
Turning to high-cost borrowing options for everyday essentials can cause the accumulation of substantial debt which will affect people’s lives for many years to come.
The Understanding Scotland: economy tracker is produced in partnership between the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership. The survey gathers economic attitudes and insights from more than 2,000 members of the Scottish adult population every 3 months to track changes over time.
Read more:
Press release - The cost of living is driving difficult choices.
Blog by Shona McCarthy - Budgeting to save a global asset.
Watch the event recording here.