Blog: Scotland's new generational divide - the economy

by David Gow, DHI Trustee

The Germans have a great (long) word for it: Politikverdrossenheit. Or a state of being pissed off by politics. Scots are far from alone in Europe in being disenchanted by their political leaders – in Holyrood as much as in Westminster. Politics is broken is a common sentiment. Government doesn’t work. No wonder then – albeit alarming – that increasingly sullen, weary voters are tempted by extremists on the fringes such as the Far Right.

Pessimism is indeed the leitmotif of the latest (February) quarterly survey in the Understanding Scotland series. Talk of the economy “turning the corner” or being “on the right course” falls on deaf Scottish ears: a majority (58%) believe the contrary – Scotland is heading in the wrong direction in their eyes.

This 3% rise in negative sentiment matches the highest percentage in the series that was last seen in May 2023 while less than a quarter of Scots (23%) believe things are heading in the right direction – a new record since this survey began in autumn 2021. Again, this is hardly surprising – the economic forecasts are almost universally pessimistic about the UK and/or Scotland exiting the perennial cycle of low growth, low productivity.

What is especially concerning is that this pessimism is prevalent amongst young adults. GenZ, like many millennials before them, sense they’ll be permanently worse off than their parents, let alone their grandparents who “never had it so good” at the same age. More than likely unable to buy their own house/flat or afford soaring private sector rents, their faith in the NHS to deliver lifelong good health is wavering to say the least.

A stark generational divide, shown up in previous surveys but now more and more salient, is marking Scotland. During 25 years of devolution the divide was increasingly between Yes and No to independence on the constitutional question but this latest survey in the series shows just 9% think this is one of the three most important issues facing the country compared to 25% in October 2021. That’s even fewer than those still concerned about Brexit (11%) – even though Scotland, especially its young folk, voted decisively against it and the overwhelming evidence is of the hugely damaging effect this is having on the economy.

As in the UK as a whole, healthcare is the top issue for Scots, with 49% citing it compared with “just” 41% pointing to the cost of living/inflation even though the latter remains untamed. Of course, the NHS is the most pressing concern for the elderly (55% of the over-65s), whether frail or not, but it is cited by 45% of 16-34-year-olds too. Again, unsurprisingly, the youngest generation (54%) thinks the cost of living matters most compared with just one in four (27%) of those of pensionable age who can rely on the ”triple lock” and their own savings/capital. Young people especially are cutting back on non-essentials such as leisure and even essentials such as heating.

A picture emerges from the survey of a nation, whatever its demographic, pre-occupied with personal/private concerns: food and energy costs, income, health. Reflecting similar trends in mainland Europe, the environment/climate change has slipped down the agenda (from 18% to 11%) while that shift in priorities is even more marked for issued such as mental health (-10 points) or poverty/inequality (-14) throughout the life of this series.

This is not to say that Scots have lost their sense of collective responsibility for society: between 75% and 87% back a safety net and the duty on employers to provide a (real) living wage and they recognise that neglect for people’s basic needs proves more costly in the long run.

However, a third of Scots (versus 23% two years ago) now rank spending on public services as a top priority, followed closely by managing public finances (tax and spending) at 27%.  The elderly are particularly concerned about managing public finances, with only a fifth of young people finding this a salient issue. Maybe the latter generation already sees greater private provision of services such as health inevitable…?

Overall, this survey re-emphasises that the governments in Westminster and Holyrood have a mountain to climb if they are to rebuild voters’ trust in politics and in their personal and collective future. There can be little optimism that the upcoming Scottish and UK Budgets will adequately address these issues. We owe it to our younger generation to do so: they have every right to feel badly let down.