Blog: Population projections and policy - think local, think global!

Blog: Sarah Wotton, David Hume Institute

6th February 2020

Scotland’s population is at its highest level ever and it is projected to grow by 3% in the next 25 years. What does this mean for Scotland?

The audience at our Firestarter event, in partnership with National Records of Scotland (NRS), heard yesterday future projections are estimates informed by past patterns continuing.

Dr Esther Roughsedge, Professor Michael Anderson and Rannvá Danielsen discussed past trends and how they have led to significant regional differences in population which policy makers need to consider.

Scotland has one of the lowest fertility rates in Western Europe. For many years the number of births in Scotland has roughly equalled the number of deaths, though there are now more deaths than births each year. In recent years, migration has been the only source of Scotland’s population growth. 

In November, we heard from Professor Graeme Roy that the working age population is critical to our ability to fund public services.  Migration provides a higher proportion of our working age population than in the rest of the UK (rUK). 

Professor Anderson explained that in fact Scotland currently has a larger ‘working age’ share of the population than it did in 1981.  It is the ageing profile of our population which makes continued working age migration critical to Scotland unless alternative methods can be found to fund public services or the public services provided change.

The discussion focussed on the regional variations within Scotland and comparison to rUK.  For example, over the next 20 years the population in Midlothian is projected to grow by around 25%, whereas the population of Na h-Eileanan Siar is projected to fall by around 11%.  The audience were interested in whether there is depopulation of some areas, for example Edinburgh City Centre, due to short-term lets and how this might affect future service provision such as public transport.

The West Coast and Island groups, which represent one third of all Scottish council areas, are projected to have declining populations until 2041.  However, within this, the Isle of Mull is an outlier.  With a third of the population now born in England or Wales (a high proportion of whom are older migrants), Professor Anderson reflected on the transport connections to Oban having significant influence on relocation, especially in early retirement. This pattern is resulting in Mull’s population evolving rather differently to nearby islands of Tiree and Islay which have had declining populations. 

Scotland is projected to have a 23% increase in people of pensionable age by 2043.  As the population ages, more of us are living alone which means that household numbers are increasing even faster than the rise in population alone.

The East of Scotland and areas surrounding Scotland’s cities are projected to have very rapidly growing populations due to inward migration trends.

About one third of migration to Scotland is from the rest of UK. There are now far more English people migrating to Scotland than vice versa.   

Polish is the most common non-British nationality in Scotland and Edinburgh has the highest proportion of Poles anywhere in the UK due to historical links with the city. However, net migration from other countries can fluctuate rapidly, and recent patterns could change as a result of Brexit.

The Seafood processing and catching sectors in Scotland are heavily reliant on migrant workers, especially for unskilled to semi-skilled work.  These sectors have more EU and non-EEA workers than the UK average and are reliant on this workforce, especially the processing sector. 

On surveying the processing industry, the biggest influence on the need for overseas recruitment was the unwillingness of local people to work in fish factories which were seen to be ‘wet and cold’. 

Policies focussing on attracting and sustaining migrants will be critical for industries like food processing.  

From the discussion it was clear, Scotland’s populations are changing quickly.  Increased awareness of the regional differences within Scotland and comparisons to the rUK will help anyone thinking about future public policy approaches in Scotland.  

The David Hume Institute would like to thank our speakers, NRS and Seafish for their support with this event.   Slides from the speakers are available here.

Blog: Migration discussion needs open hearts and minds

Blog by Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute

27th January 2020

At the launch of the Scottish Government’s policy paper “Migration, helping Scotland Prosper” today, it is clear we need open hearts and minds for Scotland to flourish.

The policy paper clearly lays out Scotland’s distinct demographic challenges.  The David Hume Institute research report Who will do the jobs? (September 2019) is quoted and our Autumn events with Jonathan Portes, Michael Anderson and Graeme Roy discussed this complex issue in depth.

All the evidence shows migrants are critical to the Scottish economy.  They are an important part of our working age population which funds our public services. Many of Scotland’s rural communities are dependent on migrant workers.

However, too often in conversations we have seen recently elsewhere in the UK, evidence and reasoned arguments don’t matter.  Food can rot in the fields because migrant labour no longer feels welcome, as long as the individual’s idea of a prosperous post Brexit future prevails. The pigs in blankets shortage may have been considered amusing by some but it was another sign of labour supply issues.

The message today from the First Minister was clear – Scotland is open.  But do all our communities feel that way?  Some of the views from the recent citizen assembly show they do not. 

The Scottish Government policy paper clearly makes the case for a different approach to migration in Scotland. However, when it is published on the same day the Scottish Government launches a Hate Crime fund for places of worship, it’s an indication much more needs to be done to appeal to people’s hearts to create a welcoming and tolerant Scotland for everyone to prosper together.

Blog: Back to the Future, a DeLorean and David Hume

Blog by Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute

January 2020

In an Edinburgh living room, more than thirty-five years ago, some friends gathered in front of a fire. They talked late into the night about philosophy, economics and public policy.  

This happened again and again. More friends joined them each time. Agreement emerged on an idea.  There was a great need for more enlightened thinking.  Public policy needed research and analysis that was not led or framed by London-based organisations.

“Truth springs from arguments amongst friends.”  David Hume

From this dusty living room, the eminent Sir Alan Peacock, the businessman Sir Gerald Elliot and a few friends started the David Hume Institute. The name was chosen out of a deep respect for David Hume and his thinking. 

From the start, the Institute was non-partisan and independent, founded firmly in the philosophy of David Hume – examining the evidence and creating informed debate.

"A wise man proportions his beliefs to the evidence." David Hume

So, while the rest of us were watching the film Back to the Future with a time travelling DeLorean, Sir Alan Peacock and his friends were discussing a new enlightenment. 

If we had a DeLorean we could go back thirty-five years and be a fly on the wall for these initial conversations.  Professor Chris Carter of Edinburgh Business School interviewed Sir Alan about this time, and these recordings are probably as close as I will come to understanding the origins of the institute. What’s changed in those thirty-five years?  What would Sir Alan think of our library of research and analysis? 

If we were lucky enough to have a DeLorean, we could go even further back in time.  We could time travel back to David Hume himself.  What would be David Hume’s favourite paper? And what would he think about the uncertain times we live in?

Since I started with the Institute in mid November, I’ve had lots of conversations about the organisation.  There are many people with close connections and fond memories of events or a favourite piece of research.

One of my most memorable David Hume Institute events was in 2013 listening to economist Danny Gabay discuss the state of the economy, quantitative easing and the pitfalls of house price led recovery.  When I googled him to see if it might be possible to invite him back to Scotland in 2020, I discovered he passed away at the age of just 47. 

Sadly, time is often too short. However, as the turn of the year is often a time of reflection, if you are willing to share your reflections on the institute’s work, we would love to hear from you.  Please get in touch to let us know your favourite piece of research or most memorable event by emailing: director@davidhumeinstitute.com

New Report: Who will do the jobs in Scotland?

Current employment rates in Scotland are at a near-record high. However, Scotland’s population is ageing fast and there is a low birth rate.

By 2041, the pension-age population is projected to increase by 265,000, while the working-age population is only projected to rise by 38,000.

This report discusses the challenges facing Scotland with changes to migration patterns and a shortage of workers. What can we do to meet the labour supply challenges in Scotland. Who will do the jobs?

2019 Summer Reading List

Each year, the David Hume Institute publishes a Summer Reading List. It is intended as a fresh way to stimulate debate about the state of the nation and brings together some of the best writing from Scotland and beyond. While the Institute does not endorse every view expressed in the books, they have been chosen because they are good reads, based on sound evidence.

The publication explains the reasons behind the list and why we chose the specific books on this year’s list. We hope they provide some enjoyable, thought-provoking reading for your summer.

New Report: Scotland's Productivity Challenge

Scottish productivity has all but stalled in the last fifteen years and a turnaround is required if future living standards are to improve. This report makes recommendations for government, policymakers, business and trade unions, based on the conclusions of new research and case studies. It details five evidence-based stories of what has worked in comparable places and draws lessons from their experiences. In each case a ruthless focus on evidence, building consensus across the political divide, and developing strong and credible institutions were all necessary to turn things around.

2018 Summer Reading List

The David Hume Institute is delighted to present its inaugural First Minister’s Summer Reading List. Bringing together some of the best recent writing from Scotland and beyond, the list is intended as a fresh way to stimulate debate about the state of the nation and the world. While the Institute does not endorse every view expressed in the books, they are all good reads, based on evidence and with something of significance to say. We hope the First Minister – or indeed any Scot – will find them thought-provoking and an enjoyable addition to their summer break.