Blog: Population projections and policy - think local, think global!

Blog: Sarah Wotton, David Hume Institute

6th February 2020

Scotland’s population is at its highest level ever and it is projected to grow by 3% in the next 25 years. What does this mean for Scotland?

The audience at our Firestarter event, in partnership with National Records of Scotland (NRS), heard yesterday future projections are estimates informed by past patterns continuing.

Dr Esther Roughsedge, Professor Michael Anderson and Rannvá Danielsen discussed past trends and how they have led to significant regional differences in population which policy makers need to consider.

Scotland has one of the lowest fertility rates in Western Europe. For many years the number of births in Scotland has roughly equalled the number of deaths, though there are now more deaths than births each year. In recent years, migration has been the only source of Scotland’s population growth. 

In November, we heard from Professor Graeme Roy that the working age population is critical to our ability to fund public services.  Migration provides a higher proportion of our working age population than in the rest of the UK (rUK). 

Professor Anderson explained that in fact Scotland currently has a larger ‘working age’ share of the population than it did in 1981.  It is the ageing profile of our population which makes continued working age migration critical to Scotland unless alternative methods can be found to fund public services or the public services provided change.

The discussion focussed on the regional variations within Scotland and comparison to rUK.  For example, over the next 20 years the population in Midlothian is projected to grow by around 25%, whereas the population of Na h-Eileanan Siar is projected to fall by around 11%.  The audience were interested in whether there is depopulation of some areas, for example Edinburgh City Centre, due to short-term lets and how this might affect future service provision such as public transport.

The West Coast and Island groups, which represent one third of all Scottish council areas, are projected to have declining populations until 2041.  However, within this, the Isle of Mull is an outlier.  With a third of the population now born in England or Wales (a high proportion of whom are older migrants), Professor Anderson reflected on the transport connections to Oban having significant influence on relocation, especially in early retirement. This pattern is resulting in Mull’s population evolving rather differently to nearby islands of Tiree and Islay which have had declining populations. 

Scotland is projected to have a 23% increase in people of pensionable age by 2043.  As the population ages, more of us are living alone which means that household numbers are increasing even faster than the rise in population alone.

The East of Scotland and areas surrounding Scotland’s cities are projected to have very rapidly growing populations due to inward migration trends.

About one third of migration to Scotland is from the rest of UK. There are now far more English people migrating to Scotland than vice versa.   

Polish is the most common non-British nationality in Scotland and Edinburgh has the highest proportion of Poles anywhere in the UK due to historical links with the city. However, net migration from other countries can fluctuate rapidly, and recent patterns could change as a result of Brexit.

The Seafood processing and catching sectors in Scotland are heavily reliant on migrant workers, especially for unskilled to semi-skilled work.  These sectors have more EU and non-EEA workers than the UK average and are reliant on this workforce, especially the processing sector. 

On surveying the processing industry, the biggest influence on the need for overseas recruitment was the unwillingness of local people to work in fish factories which were seen to be ‘wet and cold’. 

Policies focussing on attracting and sustaining migrants will be critical for industries like food processing.  

From the discussion it was clear, Scotland’s populations are changing quickly.  Increased awareness of the regional differences within Scotland and comparisons to the rUK will help anyone thinking about future public policy approaches in Scotland.  

The David Hume Institute would like to thank our speakers, NRS and Seafish for their support with this event.   Slides from the speakers are available here.