Cost of Living Continues to Keep Scots' Awake at Night

23rd August 2026

Tracker survey reveals financial strain is impacting people's daily lives, leisure activities and health.

The ongoing cost of living squeeze remains a dominant issue for Scots. According to the latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, almost half (47%) identify inflation and living costs as one of the most important issues facing the country for a second consecutive quarter.

The latest findings suggest an increasingly anxious public where financial strain is directly impacting daily life, leisure and health. 

Other key findings include:

• More than two-thirds of Scots who expressed an opinion (68%) say the economy is worse than it was a year ago.

• A similar proportion (67%) expect economic conditions to worsen over the next 12 months.

• Only around a quarter of Scots (24%) believe things in Scotland are heading in the right direction.

The survey also highlights how economic pressure is shaping everyday behaviour across Scotland:

• More than half of respondents (52%) say they have reduced non-essential spending because of concerns about money matters.

• Half (51%) say they have cut back on leisure activities.

• Four in ten Scots (40%) say they have dipped into savings to meet higher costs.

• Three in ten say concerns about money have affected their mental health (30%) or caused them to lose sleep (29%).

The findings point to continued pressure on household finances, with large numbers of Scots changing spending habits and making difficult financial choices in response to rising costs.

The majority of Scots remain broadly positive about aspects of employment, attitudes towards income and living standards are markedly less positive:

• Nearly three-quarters of Scots (73%) are satisfied that their employment provides enough paid hours.

• Two-thirds (66%) are satisfied with their job security.

• However, just 37% are satisfied with their income level.

• Almost half (49%) are dissatisfied with how well their income covers the cost of living.

While cost of living pressures remain dominant, the survey points to a shifting set of public priorities.

Immigration has risen to a record high for the series, with one in four Scots (25%) identifying it as one of the country's most important issues. The proportion highlighting social care as a key issue has increased to 13%, its highest level since the earliest wave of Understanding Scotland in 2021, while the environment and climate change has also risen sharply to 13%, its highest level since late 2023.

Meanwhile, the proportion identifying healthcare and the NHS as one of Scotland's most important issues has fallen seven percentage points since May down to 40% or four in ten - its lowest level since January 2022.

Scott Edgar, Head of Analysis and Insights, The Diffley Partnership: 

“The cost of living remains the defining issue for Scots, and the findings suggest financial pressures continue to shape both public priorities and everyday behaviour.

While economic sentiment has become slightly less negative since May, large majorities still believe economic conditions are worsening and expect further deterioration over the coming year.

At the same time, we are seeing the public agenda broaden. Alongside concerns about household finances, issues such as immigration, social care and climate change are becoming more prominent, reflecting a public that is responding both to events happening in Scotland and across the UK.”

Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute:

“This survey continues to show a ticking time bomb for those under financial strain as they struggle to make ends meet. A significant proportion of people are forced into behaviours that will have a detrimental effect on their long term health. 

Any government talking about economic growth needs to remember a tired and stressed workforce is not good for productivity or the labour market.”

The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker surveyed 2,186 adults across Scotland between 2 and 5 August 2026.  The survey has been tracking public opinion and behaviour on the Scottish Economy since October 2021.

ENDS

Notes to editors:

Designed by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,186 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 2nd and 5th August 2026. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2024 estimates) by age and gender. 

Cost of Living Dislodges the NHS as Scots’ Top Concern

25th May 2026

Tracker survey shows economic worries worsen as Scots fear further rises in cost of living 

The cost of living has overtaken healthcare and the NHS as the single biggest concern facing Scots for the first time in nearly three years, according to the latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker.

The quarterly survey, produced by The David Hume Institute with the Diffley Partnership paints an increasingly downbeat picture of Scotland’s economic mood following the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

Key findings include:

• Almost one in two Scots (47%) now rank the cost of living and inflation among the top issues facing the country. 

• More than three in four Scots who expressed an opinion (77%) say the economy is worse than a year ago, up sharply from around three in five (62%) in February, while a similar proportion (73%) expect economic conditions to deteriorate further over the next 12 months.

• Despite this collapse in economic sentiment, three in ten Scots (30%) now think the country is heading in the right direction, up notably since November 2025 (22%).

The findings suggest household financial pressures are once again dominating Scots attitudes, despite easing inflation headlines and political change at Holyrood. 

The survey also highlights how economic pressure is shaping everyday behaviour across Scotland:

• More than half of respondents (54%) say they have cut back on leisure activities because of concerns about money matters.

• A similar proportion (52%) say they have reduced non-essential spending.

• More than two in five Scots (41%) say they have dipped into savings to cope with rising costs.

The findings point to growing pressure on consumer confidence and household resilience - a significant concern for Scotland’s wider economy given the importance of consumer spending to the economy.

The report also identifies warning signs emerging in the labour market and housing affordability:

• Less than half of Scots (43%) are confident they could find a new job within three months if necessary, a decrease of four percentage points from last May (47%).

• Six in ten people (61%) say they are confident they could cope with higher housing costs over the next six months - down compared to last year.

The findings highlight the difficult economic backdrop faced by the country as it begins the new parliamentary term, with public expectations increasingly focused on living standards, wages and household financial security rather than constitutional debate.

The survey also highlights continued support for preventative approaches to tackling economic hardship:

• Nearly four in five Scots (78%) agree it costs the public purse more in the long run when people cannot meet their basic needs today.

• More than two thirds (68%) agree there is a collective responsibility to ensure a safety net during hard economic times.

Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager, The Diffley Partnership: 

“Coming just after the Scottish Parliament election, these findings underline the scale of the economic challenge facing the new Parliament. While there has been a modest improvement in how people feel about the country’s direction, that sits alongside a much more pessimistic view of the economy and living standards.

The cost of living is the defining issue for Scots, overtaking the NHS as the top concern, and shaping how people are managing their day-to-day lives. 

The task now for decision-makers is to rebuild confidence at a time when financial pressures remain entrenched and expectations for the future are increasingly fragile.”

Susan Murray, Director, The David Hume Institute:

“Consumer confidence is fundamental to a thriving economy. When people are cutting back on leisure activities, reducing non-essential spending and dipping into savings to cover everyday costs, that has a direct impact on the wider economy, investment and local communities.

“The challenge for Scotland’s political and business leaders now is to rebuild confidence at a time when public pessimism about the economy and rising cost of living is deepening and expectations for the future are becoming increasingly fragile.”

The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker surveyed 2,170 adults across Scotland between 11 and 15 May 2026.  The survey has been tracking public opinion and behaviour on the Scottish Economy since October 2021.

ENDS

 Notes

• Designed by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,170 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 11th and 15th May 2026. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2024 estimates) by age and gender. 

Sad news about former Director Jeremy Peat

We were saddened to hear that former Director, Jeremy Peat passed away recently. Our thoughts are with his wife Philippa and his family at this sad time.

Blog: Civil Litigation Hokey Cokey - Why This “Small Change” Could Carry Big Economic Risks for Scotland

22nd April 2026

At first glance, it might look like a minor procedural tweak — a minor bit of legal “hokey cokey”. A switch from opt-in to opt-out in civil litigation. In, out, to shake it all about.

Photo credit: Pierre Goiffon free licence on Unsplash 22.4.26

But this is not an incidental change. It has the potential to reshape Scotland’s legal and economic landscape in ways that deserve far more scrutiny than it is currently getting.

A change that could slip through unnoticed

Early in the next Scottish Parliamentary term, this issue is likely to land on the desks of newly elected MSPs — possibly as a Scottish Statutory Instrument. That matters, because such instruments can become law quickly, with limited debate.

At a time when many MSPs will be new to Parliament, hiring staff and navigating steep learning curves, there is a real risk this proposal gets dismissed as a technical adjustment.

It isn’t. It is a structural shift with far-reaching consequences.

What’s actually being proposed?

The Scottish Civil Justice Council is exploring changes to group proceedings under the Civil Litigation (Expenses and Group Proceedings) (Scotland) Act 2018.

At the heart of this is a move toward a US-style opt-out model for class actions.

Currently, individuals must actively choose (opt in) to be part of a group legal claim. Under the proposed system, people would automatically be included unless they take action to opt out.

That might sound consumer-friendly — more people included, more access to justice. But the reality is far more complicated.

Why it matters: scale changes everything

An opt-out system dramatically increases the scale of litigation. Suddenly, claims can encompass hundreds of thousands — even millions — of people, most of whom will not even know they are part of a case.

This creates a very different legal ecosystem — one that critics argue risks prioritising volume over value, and process over outcomes.

The concern: who really benefits?

Supporters frame mass litigation as a tool for consumer justice. But growing evidence from other jurisdictions suggests the biggest winners are often not consumers — but lawyers and litigation funders.

These cases are typically financed by third-party funders, many of them offshore investment vehicles. Their returns come from a share of settlements or damages.

That raises a critical question:

• how much of any compensation actually reaches consumers — and how much is extracted along the way?

As Seema Kennedy from Fair Civil Justice puts it:

“Large mass legal cases claim to provide access to justice for consumers… But they only work if they deliver the intended results — and increasingly the evidence suggests that they are not working.”

Even under “no-win, no-fee” arrangements, consumers ultimately pay — through deductions from settlements and damages.  Research in the US shows the average percentage of settlements reaching the consumer is less than 10%. 

A system with limited transparency

One of the more troubling aspects is the lack of oversight or regulation in the litigation funding sector.

Consumers often:

●      Lack clear information about risks

●      Sign confidentiality agreements

●      Have limited visibility of who is funding their case and on what terms

When things go wrong, the consequences can be severe — as seen in past scandals where claimants were left exposed to unexpected legal costs.

This is not a theoretical risk. It is a practical one.

Economic consequences: beyond the courtroom

The implications extend well beyond individual claims.

Business groups have long warned that introducing US-style mass litigation could:

●      Deter inward investment

●      Increase the cost of doing business

●      Divert capital away from innovation, jobs, and growth

Colin Hutton, of International law firm CMS describes the proposal as:

“The most significant development in Scottish civil litigation in decades… with implications that reach far beyond the courtroom.”

International comparisons reinforce the concerns. Evidence from countries such as Portugal and the Netherlands suggests opt-out regimes can trigger a surge in litigation — often targeting the public sector as well as private companies.

The risk of becoming a litigation outlier

If Scotland adopts this model while other parts of the UK take a more cautious approach, it risks becoming a legal outlier.

That matters for competitiveness.

Global businesses — which bring jobs, tax revenue, and investment — factor legal risk into decisions about where to operate. A more litigious environment increases uncertainty and cost.

Over time, that can shift investment elsewhere.

The cost to the wider economy

The broader economic impact could be significant.

Research from the European Centre for International Political Economy warns that unchecked growth in mass litigation could cost the UK economy up to £18 billion.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly exposed:

●      They lack the resources to absorb prolonged legal battles

●      They may settle weak claims simply to avoid costs

●      Capital is diverted from growth into legal defence

In the United States — often cited as a cautionary example — SMEs bear more than half the cost of litigation, amounting to hundreds of billions annually.

More litigation ≠ better outcomes

There is a broader policy question here.

More litigation does not necessarily mean better consumer outcomes. In many cases, it leads to:

●      Higher prices (as businesses pass on legal costs)

●      Slower access to redress

●      Overburdened courts

If the goal is to improve consumer protection, there may be more effective routes:

●      Stronger regulation

●      Better ombudsman services

●      Faster, more accessible complaints systems

A decision that deserves attention

This is not just a legal technicality. It is a decision about the kind of economy Scotland wants.

An opt-out system could:

●      Expand access to claims — but dilute individual benefit

●      Attract large-scale litigation — but deter business investment

●      Promise consumer justice — but shift value to offshore funders

That is why this “hokey cokey” matters.

Because once Scotland steps into this model, stepping back may not be so easy.

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The David Hume Institute is partnering on an event in June to discuss this further with CMS, CBI Scotland, Fraser of Allander Institute and Fair Civil Justice. 

New to this subject?

• Listen to BBC Radio 4, File on 4 Investigates: No Win No Fee… No thanks?
  

Sharing thumbnail image credit: Photo by Tingey Injury Law Firm downloaded free from Unsplash on 22.4.26

New research to reveal housing associations’ roles in improving Scotland’s economic performance

8th April 2026

SFHA commission new research from Professor Duncan Maclennan and the David Hume Institute to better understand the sector’s impact on the Scottish economy.

The Scottish Federation of Housing Associations (SFHA) has commissioned research from the David Hume Institute and global housing expert, Professor Duncan Maclennan to better understand the contribution of housing associations to Scotland’s economy.

The research, titled Beyond bricks and mortar: Recognising housing associations’ role in Scotland’s economyseeks to evidence the impact of housing associations as a national driver of fairer and faster economic growth.

Professor Maclennan is an applied economist specialising in housing, neighbourhoods and cities with his professional background involving both senior academic and policy roles in Australia, Canada and the UK.

His recent work has advocated for a whole system approach, recognising the economic drivers and adverse consequences of poor housing outcomes, to tackling the housing polycrisis. This includes a major report he authored with the David Hume Institute last year titled Prosperity Begins At Home. The report had argued for a radical shift in the understanding of housing as just a social issue to instead be recognised as a critical economic infrastructure shaping jobs, economic growth and environment. 

The new research commissioned by SFHA is due to report later this year and will build on the themes of the Prosperity Begins At Home report. 

As part of the research, SFHA member housing associations will shortly receive a survey to share their insights into the scale and economic reach of their organisation.  Professor Maclennan will use these insights along with other research on how housing outcomes impact health, education and accessibility to jobs in ways that shape growth and productivity.

The aim of outlining the full contribution of housing associations to Scotland’s economy comes as the country is set to go to the polls for May’s Scottish Parliament election. The research findings will provide an opportunity for elected MSPs to understand the full scale and reach of Scotland’s housing associations as a driver for economic growth and productivity. Abating the housing polycrisis requires a change in mindsets, systems and outcomes and the research will provide a coherent economic story for politicians and practitioners that has been missing too long in Scotland.

SFHA Chief Executive, Richard Meade said:

“Housing associations and co-operatives have been an integral part of Scotland’s social fabric for decades providing over 300,000 secure, warm and affordable homes in communities everywhere from Shetland to the Scottish Borders.

“However, as well as their unique social purpose, housing associations make a significant contribution to Scotland’s economy. They provide tens of thousands of jobs, invest significantly in communities and the social infrastructure they create is vital to supply chains and businesses throughout the country.  

“We are delighted to commission the David Hume Institute and Professor Duncan Maclennan to better evidence the contribution of housing associations to Scotland’s economy. This research will show the impact housing associations have on the economy and the contributions they make to meeting  Scotland’s economic missions..

“Ending the housing emergency is not only a moral imperative, but it is also an economic imperative. This research will set out an evidence-based business case for investing in housing associations to create a more prosperous country.”

Professor Duncan Maclennan said:

“Housing has too often been viewed narrowly as a social issue, when in reality it is a fundamental part of a well-functioning economy. This research will explore how housing associations contribute not only to meeting housing need, but to improving productivity, supporting labour markets and enabling sustainable economic growth across Scotland. By taking a whole-system perspective, we can better understand the full economic value of the sector and its role in shaping a more prosperous future.”

Susan Murray, Director of the David Hume Institute said:

“This research builds on our work highlighting housing as essential economic infrastructure. At a time when Scotland is focused on growth and productivity, it is vital that we fully recognise the contribution housing associations make - not just socially, but economically. By strengthening the evidence base, this research will help inform policy and investment decisions that support both communities and long-term economic resilience.”

[ENDS]

Notes to Editors

• Housing associations directly employ over 13,000 people across Scotland and invest hundreds of millions of pounds in developing new homes and improving existing homes.

• Scottish Federation of Housing Associations (SFHA) is the membership body for, and collective voice of housing associations and co‑operatives in Scotland. 

• About Professor Duncan Maclennan: Duncan was a member of the Board of Scottish Homes from 1989 until 1999 and then spent a decade working in government, as special Adviser to the First Ministers of Scotland, as a Chief Economist in the Government of Victoria and as Chief Economist in Canada’s Federal Department for Infrastructure and Cities. He has acted as adviser to Ministers in the UK, Scotland, France, Poland and Norway, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  He is a fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, the Academy of Social Sciences and Honorary Member of the Royal Town Planning Institute, The Chartered Institute of Housing and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. He was awarded a CBE for services to UK housing research in 1997. He remains affiliated to the University of Glasgow as an Emeritus Professor of Urban Economics and holds Professorial appointments in Housing Economics at McMaster University (Ontario) and UNSW (Sydney).

• About the David Hume Institute: The David Hume Institute is an independent think tank with a mission to improve understanding of the economy in Scotland. DHI undertakes research and hosts public events to encourage discussion about the economy and society.  

NHS and Cost of Living Top Priority for Voters

25th February 2026

Scots feel marginally less pessimistic about the country’s economy, but pressure on spending remains

Nearly half of Scottish voters say healthcare is one of the most important issues facing Scotland, followed closely by the cost of living, according to the latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker.

The final wave of the survey before the May election, published by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute, found around half (48%) of Scots say that healthcare and NHS is a top priority, while more than two in five (43%) said the cost of living and inflation, the biggest rise in concern this wave, up five points.

Almost one in four (23%) name immigration as a top issue - similar to the last tracker in November (22%).

A second tier of concerns remains steady: around one in five (18%) mention poverty and inequality, and the same proportion (18%) cite the economy more broadly. Around one in seven (15%) point to trust in politics, while around one in eight (13%) identify housing.

Economic pessimism eases — but pressure remains

While concern remains high, economic sentiment has improved modestly:

• Around three in five (62%) of those that express an opinion say the economy has worsened over the past year, down seven points since November.

• Two in five (41%) say their personal finances have deteriorated, down six points.

• Two in three (66%) expect economic conditions to worsen in the year ahead, down from nearly three in four (73%) previously.

Yet financial strain is still widespread:

• Just over one in two (52%) report that they have recently cut non-essential spending

• One in two (50%) have reduced leisure spending

• Almost two in five (39%) have dipped into savings

• Three in ten (31%) say money worries are affecting their mental health

Looking ahead, essential costs continue to weigh heavily:

• About seven in ten (69%) expect higher utility bills

• One in two (50%) expect to spend more on food and drink

• Around one in two (49%) foresee higher housing costs

The data also points to deep scepticism about the economic system itself:

• One in fourteen (7%) believe the economy works for most people

• Just one in twelve (8%) think it works for them personally

• Seven in ten (71%) believe it primarily works in the interests of the wealthy

As the election campaign begins, the picture is clear: voters remain under sustained financial pressure and deeply concerned about core public services, but with a cautious sense that the economic outlook may be stabilising.

Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager, The Diffley Partnership:

“As we move into the election campaign, voters are sending a very clear signal: the NHS and the cost of living will define this contest. Even though pessimism about the economy has eased slightly, people are still feeling real pressure in their day‑to‑day lives. Any party seeking to win trust in May will have to demonstrate not only that they understand these pressures, but that they have credible plans to address them.”

Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute:

“There are tentative signs of improvement but confidence in the economic system itself remains strikingly low. Very few people believe the economy works for them — or for most other people.”

“With more than one in four people losing sleep over their finances and one in five people saying money worries are making them less effective at work, there is still a long way to go to tackle the low wage, precarious work that is undermining the economy and the nation’s resilience.

“The challenge for policymakers is not only easing immediate pressures for individuals and businesses, but rebuilding faith that Scotland’s economy can deliver fairness and opportunity more widely as we transition to new industries and ways of living.”

Notes

• Designed by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,131 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 1st-4th February 2026. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2024 estimates) by age and gender. 

Image credit: Front cover of the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, February 2026, image of Arbroath Town Centre by S. Murray

Blog: Flexible Working - productive vs reductive debate?

27st January 2025

by Lynn Houmdi

Lynn Houmdi is founder of Flexible Working Scotland, Co-creator of Making Work Work and Senior Manager, The Challenges Group. She supports people - particularly women - to find or create meaningful work that works with all the other commitments and enjoyment of life. Prior to this Lynn had a career in public policy and diplomacy.

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Last week we witnessed another wave of media attention on flexible working, prompted largely by the BBC Panorama episode which aired on 20 January, “Should we still be working from home?”

In recent months, we have seen a surge of RTO (return to office) mandates, calling employees back into the office for all or part of the week and reversing policies put in place during the pandemic.

In the media, the flexible working debate is often over-simplified as a binary: in the office or working from home. In fact, there are literally hundreds of flexible working patterns, because every variant could be combined with one or more others. For example, someone might work part-time, hybrid. Another employee might have flexible start and finish times to their day while working remotely.

Evidence based decisions?

There is a body of research emerging which suggests that decisions around RTO are not being taken on the basis of evidence around productivity but on personal bias (by older, male CEOs);[1] on the basis of sector trends (everyone else is, so we had better); to reassert control over employees, blaming them for bad firm performance;[2] or as a means to reduce headcount without redundancies.[3] Research published in November 2024 by recruitment platform Indeed found that 44% of managers and 55% of employees felt RTO was less about purpose and more about keeping up appearances.[4]

In assessing whether a particular form of flexible working is good for productivity, firms need to first be able to measure productivity. In some industries, this is simple - number of calls answered or number of lines coded. In many others, it is much more complex.

Productivity may be improved by the time or location of work. While someone may feel productive ploughing through emails at home, are they also productive in the office catching up with colleagues? On the other hand, too much time at home may lead to isolation, impacting productivity and belonging in the longer term. How do we measure this?

It is also necessary to understand the fundamental role of two important - and interrelated - elements of productivity: good managerial practice (including performance management) and trust. According to the Chartered Management Institute, over 80% of managers are so-called accidental managers, meaning they took on managerial responsibilities without formal training. Someone who is ill-equipped to manage people they can see from their desk is unlikely to be able to manage well when team members are working flexibly.

Trust is vital.

Only a good manager can engender trust. Trust is vital in employee engagement, retention, productivity and wellbeing. The most efficient scenario is one where an employer does not take on people who are not trustworthy, manages performance supportively and well, and does not act in a way which undermines trust. However, life is not only more complex than tabloids suggest, businesses do not always operate efficiently.

Despite an apparent dislike of remote working among some prominent senior leaders, it is enabling a greater supply of labour, as more disabled workers, women and parents access work. It is a magnet for talent, meaning firms can recruit sought-after skills from a much wider radius. It is also driving technological advances and investment.

Nick Bloom, the Stanford Professor featured in the Panorama programme wrote in a paper for the IMF that the impact of remote working depends on how it is managed. He goes on to say:

“While the micro productivity impacts on any individual firm may be neutral, the huge power of labour market inclusion means that the aggregate macro impact is likely to be positive.”

And while he acknowledges the negative impact on city centre retail and commercial property prices, retail spend is being displaced to suburbs and commercial property has the potential to be repurposed for housing.[1] 

In that frustrating way that real life is often more complex than tabloid headlines would suggest, one size does not fit all. Not only for individuals, but for businesses. As managers and leaders, we need to move away from fluffy phrases such as “flexible working” towards honest, evidence-based discussions of how, where and when people deliver their best work.

Happy workers are productive workers.

If we accept that diversity is good for business, then a greater diversity of working patterns is good for individuals, for businesses and for the economy, because diverse workforces are not built on the assumption that everyone delivers their best work in the same way.

The reductionist debate of remote vs. the office is unhelpful, not least in erasing the experience of many front-line and customer-facing employees and key workers who wish they had the choice.

Ends

References

[1] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nick-bloom-stanford_three-papers-analyzed-1200-us-return-to-activity-7250871032759099392-qYVI

[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4675401

[3] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nick-bloom-stanford_employees-appear-to-be-pushing-back-more-activity-7272263800437764097-ocrj

[4] https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/return-to-office-appearance/

Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Adolfo Félix free from Unsplash 27.1.25

Blog: The Great Risk Transfer - a view from the culture sector

by Kathryn Welch, Director, Culture Counts

Kathryn Welch, is Director of Culture Counts, a network supporting the arts, heritage, and creative industries in Scotland. Kathryn explores the relevance of the David Hume Institute’s Great Risk Transfer research to the culture sector and wider society.

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The Great Risk Transfer: employment and financial wellbeing report explores the changed relationship between employers and employees. For Culture Counts, a network supporting the arts, heritage and creative industries in Scotland, many of the concerns raised feel resonant to our sector.

A financially strained funding environment, combined with the long-term effects of Covid and the cost of living crisis, means many cultural organisations are struggling to create the conditions for fair work. Workers in the sector - particularly the high numbers of freelance workers and low-paid staff, bear the brunt of these conditions.

A freelance workforce

Freelancers are a hugely significant part of the creative workforce. Creative Scotland reports that 41% of creative workers in Scotland work on a freelance basis.

This is not a low-skilled or casual workforce but represents people of all levels of seniority, in vital-to-the-sector functions including technical, production and creative roles. Whilst a good number of these individuals relish the flexibility and variety of self-employment, the Cultural and Creative Freelancers’ study notes that many freelancers face a lack of opportunity to move into permanent or salaried jobs, which are simply unavailable in their job roles. Instead, freelance contracts are typically available on a project-by-project basis, shifting job precarity from employers onto the individuals they hire. 

Freelancers are not currently included in fair work legislation and 60% of freelancers are not members of a union, leaving them without much of the protection afforded to salaried staff. As a consequence, freelance artists are less likely to report feeling supported in their work than employed artists working in similar settings. And this support is much-needed; creative freelancers report extremely long hours, low pay, limited training opportunities and the necessity of undertaking unpaid work to maintain relationships and complete projects.

The Big Freelancer Survey 2024 carried out by Freelancers Make Theatre Work, presents “a workforce that is at breaking point due to unsustainably low pay and long hours”. Their research found that a third of freelancers reported average hourly earnings below the National Living Wage for that period; wages that would be illegal in the context of a PAYE job. Furthermore, almost a fifth of respondents reported working an average of 50 or more hours per week over the past year, which is over the legal limit defined in the Working Time Directive.

The Great Risk Transfer’s concerns about pensions are magnified amongst the freelance workforce: just 17% of self employed workers, and 13% of self employed women workers, participate in a pension scheme. Research found that the precarious nature of their work adversely affects the mental health of creative freelancers, exacerbated for many by a (financial) reluctance to take time off for sickness or holiday - bouncing unpredictably from full-on, intensive contracts followed by periods of stress and anxiety associated with lack of work. The Campaign for the Arts has raised concerns that the recent increases in many Employers’ National Insurance contributions following the UK budget may incentivise employers to move current employees into self-employment, placing workers against their will into these highly precarious working conditions.

Whilst creative freelancers face particular risks, all is not rosy for those in employed roles either.

The creative and heritage sectors have long been reliant on low-waged staff, especially in vital roles such as front of house and box office teams.

For creative roles, unpaid internships and very poorly-paid entry level roles have been an established route into certain career paths. There are social class distinctions here; unpaid internships have long been the privilege of those who can afford to work for free. Managing the challenges of chronically low-paid but creatively rewarding employment is, ironically, fast becoming available only to those with a financial cushion. Those who simply cannot afford to stay in very low-paying roles are increasingly leaving the sector altogether.

The Sutton Trust, for example, found that 43% of classical musicians have attended an independent school, compared to 7% of the general UK population.

The Heritage Alliance cite research from UK Heritage Pulse in their analysis of the impact of cost of living issues on staff working in the heritage sector, finding that stress levels within the sector are continuing to increase, with more than one in four heritage workers now reporting that they feel uncomfortably stressed on most days. They cite museum staff taking steps such as avoiding workplace social events, working from home to cut commuting costs, and taking less annual leave or time off in lieu in order to manage their heavy workloads.

The connection drawn by the Great Risk Transfer between financial precarity and organisational productivity feels particularly important.

For the creative sector, there is an existential risk created by its reliance on low paid staff. In an environment of increasing costs of living and entrenched low pay, even for experienced and skilled staff, it becomes increasingly difficult for employees to remain in the sector, or for workers from low income backgrounds to consider joining.

This is doubly problematic: organisations lose key people, skills and capacity, and the sector as a whole becomes less reflective of the diversity of Scotland’s people, backgrounds and experiences.

Concurrently, our creative institutions become less able to do what they do best - a recent Museums Galleries Scotland report finds that organisations faced with redundancy decisions are prioritising ‘keeping the doors open’ via front of house roles.

Instead, the report finds, museums and galleries are losing positions in curation, education, learning and participation roles - with long-term consequences for museums and galleries’ ability to preserve stories and support meaningful engagement with our past; what MGS calls “the ability to care for and share the stories of the collections we hold for the people of Scotland”.

For many creative and heritage organisations, volunteering is a mainstay of their operations, with volunteers contributing their time, passion and skills for the benefit of others. With narrowing economic margins, people may well have less capacity to contribute. The 2023 Scottish Household Survey found that the Scottish volunteering rate had dropped to 18%, a drop of four percent from 2022, and eight percent lower than pre-Covid. 

Scotland’s geographies bring additional financial issues for this low-paid creative workforce; concerns shared with other sectors such as hospitality. The heritage sector, in particular, is defined by sites across rural areas, where prospective employees face challenges associated with lack of affordable public transport, high costs of housing and the harder impacts of the cost of living crisis to rural areas.

#EvenHereEvenNow, a manifesto created by artists across Scotland’s islands, highlights higher energy costs, fuel poverty, digital connectivity and limited transport as challenges that disproportionately affect islands-based artists.

The risks of precarious and low-paid employment are not borne equally across Scotland’s creative sector.

The Equal Media and Culture Centre for Scotland found that 60% of part-time roles in the arts sector are held by women, and that almost three times the number of women to men cited care responsibilities as a major barrier to their work in the arts.

Reflecting on the impact of the pandemic to the sector in terms of reductions in job opportunities, Chi Onwurah MP, Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Creative Diversity, highlighted that “without action, we risk exacerbating inequalities further in the creative industries and an entire generation of talent – the future of the sector – could be lost”.

This is a matter of inclusion and equity. For the creative industries it also represents a loss of creative talent, a narrowing of our creative ambition and a reduction in the breadth and diversity of our creative output - a very particular rendering of what the Great Risk Transfer describes as “productivity”.

The narrowing of participation in culture and heritage, whether in paid work or in volunteering, could mean that these sectors - which are important forums in which society experiences and understands itself - in turn reduce in creativity, in inclusion, and ultimately in relevance. 

Organisational challenges

At Culture Counts, whilst we echo the overall concerns highlighted by the Great Risk Transfer, we recognise the challenges facing employers and organisations in the cultural and creative sector.

This picture is not a battle between exploitative employers and vulnerable workers.

Many creative organisations are tiny (a mapping exercise by Scottish Contemporary Art Network found that 84% of arts organisations report an annual income of less then £425k), and dependent to a very large extent on public funding.

Many employers actively champion aspirations to improve working conditions in the sector, and are acutely aware of the importance of widening access to creative careers, creating sustainable livelihoods in the arts, and supporting the wellbeing of staff.

Creative and cultural employers consulted for Culture Radar’s Review of Fair Work prioritised actions to help them resolve low pay and precarious work, support workers most impacted by Covid lockdowns, invest in workforce skills and improve employee wellbeing.

Initiatives to prioritise Fair Work are directly connected to a funding landscape that has been stagnant - and in some cases declining - over a period of years and decades. As wages - rightly - rise due to increases in the Minimum and Real Living wages, many organisations report a direct impact on their financial stability - leading to operational deficit and/or having to use reserves to meet the cost of increased wages.

For some organisations, adapting to provide increased wages has come at a cost of job security for employees, with employers unable to provide stability for workers due to being unable to commit to longer term contracts thanks to their own annual funding settlements. Whilst financial risk is being transferred from employers to employees, it’s also important to note that the chain continues upward, with three year funding settlements for Scottish Government core funded cultural organisations promised in the 2021 SNP Manifesto, but as yet unrealised. 

The experience of the arts, heritage and creative industries largely echoes that of the Great Risk Transfer more broadly, sharing concerns in terms of employee wellbeing, inadequate pensions, financial precarity and its impact on productivity and society in Scotland.

The sector-specific contexts for the creative sector, notably a low-paid and largely freelance workforce, the importance of a diverse workforce for a vibrant creative output, and the challenge of managing standstill and short-term funding commitments, add further food for thought to the findings.

At Culture Counts, we echo DHI’s recommendations for further steps to embed the principles of Fair Work and Living Pensions into the future of the creative workforce - whilst noting the particularities of the sector that add further nuance and challenge to the equitable and sustainable implementation of such initiatives.

Culture Counts looks forward to being part of these conversations going forward via our role on the Scottish Government’s Fair Work Taskforce. We call for a wide-ranging consideration about the whole picture of investment in culture, encompassing not just Creative Scotland and Scottish Government funding, but philanthropy, trusts and foundations, Local Authorities and earned income. Investment in culture fundamentally affects the current and future workforce, and the possibilities for Fair Work for all.

Culture and the arts cannot become solely by rich people for rich people - a broader, fairer and more sustainable sector enriches us all.

Ends

Sharing thumbnail image - Pianodrome (2018). Photo: Andrew Downie. Edinburgh Festival Fringe Society.

Blog: Scotland needs economic hope

27th November 2024

by David Gow, DHI Trustee

"Fings can only get worse," warned PM Keir Starmer in a negative take on the 1993 D:Ream anthem that ushered in the last Labour government and the Northern Ireland band has now banned the party from using. It's one message from the Prime Minister the public fully believes in five months after Labour's landslide win.

Our latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, the 13th 'wave' in the series, highlights a deepening pessimism among Scots, young and old, about their own and the country's prospects. Almost two-thirds (63%, up 9% on the August survey) believe the economy has worsened in the past year and 65% (up 13 points) expect a further deterioration. At a personal level, the sense of doom is slightly less dark: at 48%/44%. But don't hold your breath.

It's pretty plain that Scots, like most Brits, know and feel that the UK is measurably poorer now than it was, say, pre-pandemic or pre-Brexit or pre-great financial crisis even over a decade ago. The last parliament (2019-24) saw the worst decline in earnings growth for over 60 years and the "boomers'" children are worse off than their parents. Too many of these are now attracted to the Far Right - across Europe and elsewhere.

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest chief economist, told me at the tracker's launch (25 November) that he didn't expect a new recession but with Donald Trump already slapping prospective tariff hikes on Canada, Mexico and China it must be nip and tuck. A generalised tit-for-tat trade war will almost certainly deepen any recessionary tendencies, notably in the eurozone, with the ghost of Smoot Hawley 2.0 worrying the hell out of policymakers and observers. (Or it should be!)

Skipped meals and depression

Almost a half (47%) of younger Scots, according to our survey, say economic anxieties and pressures are affecting their mental health - a finding true of a third (32%) of Scots as a whole. Three in ten of us are losing sleep over our finances. People are cutting back on buying fresh food products and skipping meals (as many as 19%) and this is more true of young people than other demographic groups.

For me and others the greatest worry is the impact upon young children. Danny Dorling, Professor of Geography at Oxford University and a surprise guest at the launch, commented the worst affected in terms of the rise in child poverty in the Europe is England, he shocked us. No English county outperforms Scotland in this regard. In terms of economic pessimism, suggested this was a global trend - with some notable exceptions in countries such as India... and Russia - for other reasons.

This, of course, is no consolation. Around a quarter of a million of Scottish children (26%) live in relative poverty and the Scottish Government is way off reaching its 10% target by 2030-31, even with the Child Payment. We all need hope but our young people, above all children, need an injection of this most of all if we are to begin to tackle the enduring UK/Scottish problem of low productivity growth which, as Burnside said, is the biggest source of declining living standards.

Investing in the future

Rachel Reeves, the UK chancellor, is struggling to inject hope and optimism into business and consumers for all her talk of investment and growth. Our tracker, equally, sets a high bar for Shona Robison, finance secretary, to cross when she presents the Scottish Budget on December 4. Even the unexpected boost to the Scottish Government's net fiscal position from the first Reeves budget - "transformed" according to the IFS - may not be enough.

Robison, cannot promise the earth but she could and should offer the prospects of a (eventually) more stable outlook and put the emphasis on investment in education and training as well as in the most promising economic sectors, including the (struggling) creative industry. Our tracker points to an urgent need, above all, to restore public confidence in the future.

"Get Scotland Working" is likely to be a theme (h/t the UK version unveiled on November 26) for her to adopt. Not in terms of unemployment but incentives to enter or re-enter the labour market, notably among the more than 300,000 Scots on adult disability payment and those economically inactive as a whole (22.6% of the 16-64 age group) of which there are a staggering 9m in the UK.

However, for many work is not a route out of poverty or cutting the welfare bill, with around four in ten of those on Universal Credit in Scotland, being in work. Low paid and precarious work traps many in a constant battle to make ends meet - this certainly won’t help boost productivity with so many people losing sleep over their finances.

Collectively, Scottish politicians and civil society need to turn around what is one of the most arresting tracker findings: a net 64% of our citizens believe the economy works in the interests of the wealthy while a net -56% think it does not work for them individually.

• The survey of 2,233 respondents was designed by the DHI and Diffley Partnership, carried out 1-5 November 2024

Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Jon Tyson free licence from Unsplash on 27.11.2024

Press Release: Scots report increased financial pressure impacting their work and home life

Monday 25th November 2024 

48% of people living in Scotland believe their financial situation is worse than a year ago, our independent quarterly tracker has revealed.   

Since August 2024, there has been a six percentage point rise in people feeling that their own finances have worsened in the last year – with 3 in 10 people (29%) admitting they have lost sleep over money.

While 63% believe that the general economic conditions are worse, up nine percentage points, 65% of people said they believe that the general economic conditions will continue to decline, up 13 points on the last quarter.  

The latest results for the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, from the David Hume Institute and polling experts Diffley Partnership, suggest a growing lack of optimism over the last three months and pose big questions for Shona Robison ahead of the Scottish Budget.

The latest edition of the survey from November 2024 shows that:

• More than 1 in 6 people (17%) report strained relationships at home because of money

• 1 in 6 Scots (16%) report an impact on their physical health due to worries about money

• 1 in 3 people (32%) report an impact on their mental health due to worries about money

• Only 15%  say that concerns about money matters have not affected them

• 3 out of 4 people (75%) believe the economy works primarily in the interests of wealthy people

This shift towards a less positive outlook suggests that political messaging from Prime Minister Keir Starmer that “things will get worse before they get better” ahead of Labour’s first budget in October has been heard loud and clear by Scots.

However, there is not a complete lack of optimism with younger Scots more likely to believe that their financial fortunes will turn. Those aged between 16 and 34 appear more optimistic with 25% saying they believe their own economic situation will get better. This compares to just 6% of 45 to 54 year-olds, 8% aged 55 to 64, and 5% of over 65s.

When looking at the policy priorities for Scots, healthcare and the NHS remains the top priority of Scots with nearly half (47%) citing this as one of the top three issues facing Scotland.  A third (34%) cite cost of living and inflation, this has declined eight percentage points from November 2023. One in five (19%) put poverty/inequality among the top three issues facing Scotland.

Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager, at the Diffley Partnership said:

“The latest findings from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker show that public confidence in the economy has taken a massive hit over the last three months.

People are reporting that concerns over money matters are impacting their work, home life, and health.

With two-thirds of Scots expecting the economy to worsen over the next twelve months, many will be looking to next week’s Scottish Budget as a chance to offer a signal of confidence in the nation’s economic future.”

Susan Murray from the David Hume Institute said

“With the Scottish Government’s budget just over a week away, there is an opportunity for Finance Secretary Shona Robison take on board the large number of people struggling financially.

“However, as the weather turns colder, it feels like there is a long hard winter ahead for many. I hope all political parties take on board the large number of people feeling so stretched as the political horse-trading starts to get the Scottish budget passed. 

“The economy will not turn a corner and productivity will not increase until more people are sleeping easily at night and not lying awake worrying about money.”

  Notes to editors: 

• Designed by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,233 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 1st-5th November. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2021 estimates) by age and gender.  

Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Claudia Wolff, free from Unsplash on 24.11.2024

Reflections: The Art of Asking Questions

15th November 2024

Graham Boyack reflects on our recent event with John Sturrock KC and shares information on how the Scottish Mediation Network is supporting young people to develop effective questioning and listening skills

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I was delighted to attend the David Hume Institute event in partnership with EICC Live on the important subject of asking effective questions. The Q&A led by Clare English brought John Sturrock’s presentation to real life. Clare in combination with the audience, asked John, a great series of questions about how to apply his work and discussed the difficulties they thought might be encountered.

One of the questions raised by the audience was how we equip the next generation with these skills.

I had an answer but as time was pressing on the event came to a close before I could let anyone know - so here is an update on what Scottish Mediation is doing to encourage the next generation to not only ask great questions but to have the skills to listen to the answers.

Young Talk in Schools

Since 2006 Scottish Mediation’s Young Talk programme has been training primary and secondary school students in how to be Peer Mediators.

To be a mediator, essential skills include the ability to listen effectively and have the ability to ask great questions.

Since 2021 through a collaboration with Our Minds Matter in Fife we have delivered this training to every primary school in fife and are currently completing training across all the secondary schools. The training we carry out however goes deeper, and specifically looks to equip young people in how to deal with the everyday conflicts that arise in their lives.

Within peer mediation training, there is a large focus on helping peer mediators to understand and articulate their own emotions and needs, and how they might be able to recognise the emotions and needs of the participants in conflict. While this increase in emotional intelligence is beneficial within peer mediation, it also enables peer mediators to better care for their own emotional wellbeing outside the peer mediation process.

Within peer mediation, the young people in conflict are asked to identify how certain things made them feel, and what they need in order to feel better about the situation. This allows them to increase their emotional intelligence, while also being able to acknowledge and empathise with the boundaries and needs of the person with whom they are in conflict.

Strengthening relationships

Peer mediation also improves mental and emotional wellbeing by providing a space for young people to re-engage in relationships when conflict has occurred.

Positive relationships are incredibly important for children and young people’s mental health. Research also shows that conflict, when not resolved well, can lead to relationship breakdown. However, when conflict is communicated well, and a resolution is found together, it can actually strengthen relationships.

Thus, by providing a space in which young people can work through conflict together, those in conflict are better able to maintain vital friendships, or cordial relationships, that respect each person’s needs.

This year we’ve taken this work to a number of schools in Scotland, including in Perth and Kinross with the support of the Gannochy Trust. If you’d like to find out more about it a report on our work in Fife is available here, you can also link to how this work relates to the latest Scottish Government work on how a public health approach to violence reduction here.

Further information

If you are interested to find out more about the Young Talk programme, we’d be delighted to speak to you. Call 0131 556 1221 or get in touch with us by emailing admin@scottishmediation.org.uk

Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Taylor Flowe free from Unsplash 15.11.2024

Reflections: Transforming the housing system in Scotland

16th October 2024

Callum Chomczuk reflects* on the recent launch of our work with Professor Duncan Maclennan to Transform Scotland’s Housing System. Callum is the national director of Chartered Institute of Housing in Scotland. 

Photo Credit: Allan Lloyds, Live to Air

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The David Hume Institute has launched a new project with Professor Duncan Maclennan to consider the actions needed to transform the housing system in Scotland. 

Transforming the housing system is a fairly large statement of intent but given the challenges we face today with the declaration of local and national housing emergencies, rising homelessness, falling supply and increasing unaffordability, the ambition set out in Duncan's remit is both proportionate and necessary. Indeed, given that we have been in a housing crisis since at least the 1980s, the challenge facing this review is to thoughtfully look at the whole housing system and consider the question of what a fixed housing system would look like?

Now, it is easy to set out a menu of policy interventions that we believe are required to improve housing outcomes for a certain client group. We do it all the time, and we all have our biases. This could be a housing and infrastructure agency, market led approaches to affordable housing, rent caps, professionalisation, increased grant levels, or meeting the demand for owner occupation amongst many, many more.

However, the repeated failure of our housing policy over the decades has been looking at it as a tenure or sectoral issue rather than a systemic issue. We can’t ignore the fact that we are part of a wider UK housing sector with social security, monetary and fiscal policy all reserved to Westminster, and we can’t ignore the fact that changes to one part of the housing sector, have consequences across it all.

That is why, for example, so many housing representatives in Scotland are concerned about the proposed model for private rented sector rent controls in the Housing (Scotland) Bill being considered by parliament. It is not that rent controls by themselves are undesirable or unworkable, but without recognition of the impact it will have on landlord investment, homelessness presentations and mid-market rent supply and meaningful measures to address them, it will only exacerbate the existing housing emergency. Housing is systemic and interconnected so our policy prescriptions must be so too.

But regardless of the recommendations that Duncan’s report produces, and I know there will be things we instinctively agree and disagree with, the biggest challenge will be how much capacity, curiosity and resource is there in the sector and government for system change and risk taking? Will we engage with the process or just judge the recommendations at the end depending on how many of our priorities have made it into the final draft?

I think back to the publication of the Scottish government’s Housing to 2040 paper and how it set out a positive vision for our housing system, but it was just a vision. Like any vision, it needs a framework for delivery, it needs evidence, it needs new structures, more collaboration, more ownership and more humility. We need to look at the foundations of a better housing system and how we correct market failure.

So, this review is a chance to re-start the discussion on getting to that improved system but also being honest about the things we can’t do, or the things we need to wait to do.

Are we willing to be part of an open discussion? Can we all compromise on the things that we have fought so hard for to create a better housing system. Can we prioritise the outcome and not the input? It will be great to be part of the conversation. I hope we can.

*This blog is kindly reproduced with the permission of Callum Chomczuk, National Director of the Chartered Institute of Housing.

Blog: Are we singing a new song?

29th August 2024

by David Gow, DHI Trustee

"Fings can only get worse," Sir Keir Starmer intoned in the 10 Downing Street rose garden on August 27 in a reverse reprise of Labour's 1997 campaign song . "Before they get better." He added that the UK should "accept short-term pain for long-term gain." It's a tough ask but maybe Scots at least are up for it.

Perhaps, indeed. What emerges from our latest quarterly survey of voter sentiment towards the Scottish Economy, Understanding Scotland, is that Scots are increasingly torn between feeling (a shade) more upbeat and anxious, between modest optimism and continuing pessimism.

Certainly, more than half (56%) of the 2227 respondents to the survey conducted exactly a month after the July 4 General Election still think Scotland is heading in the wrong direction but that's six points down on the record 62% in May while those believing the opposite are up four points at 23%. 

What's more, fears about the cost of living/inflation at 58% are down close to levels last seen in January 2022 (56%), probably reflecting the upturn in earnings and even (some) lower prices. (The survey pre-dates Ofgem's announcement of a 10% hike in energy guide prices). Most tellingly, those thinking that general economic conditions are worse than 12 months ago have fallen to 52% (net) or the lowest level since the survey began in October 2021. Personal negativity is down to 42% from a high of 65% in November 2022 while optimism is up to 15% (net) - hardly a dizzying decline but worth monitoring to see if it upticks

As we and our colleagues at the Diffley Partnership say in the report's intro, "a growing proportion are unsure about the country’s direction, suggesting a populace still searching for clarity in uncertain times." As we point out, there remains a significant sense of precarity, notably among families with children.

Unhealthy options among the poor

More than one in five (22%) is still cutting back on fruit and veg to cut food bills, a bad signal for a nation fighting rampant obesity, while a similar number is reducing meal/portion sizes to save money - the same goal pursued by the 14% skipping meals. It's surely bad news that more than a half (52%) admits to shopping on price rather than health, while a quarter or more is eating processed food and/or cheap food requiring little or no cooking. And we know from here and elsewhere that it's poorer parents, particularly young mothers, who skimp on meals so they can feed their kids.

Financial resilience remains worryingly high among less well-off households. A third of households with children are not confident they could raise £100 in an emergency without borrowing, a level that rises to 58% when the required loan is £500. Inequality may not be a substantial policy issue (at just 8%) but poverty remains among the biggest priorities (27%).

Tax and spend alerts

Ahead of the October 30 Budget (UK) and the Scottish Government's renewed brake on spending, concern about manging public finances is on the up - at 29% compared with 24% a year ago. And a third remains convinced spending on public services is an important issue facing the Scottish economy. Rachel Reeves' "black hole" is clearly and understandably putting the wind up a lot of folk., including actual and/or potential pensioners (a concern for 12% or up three points on May.)

Will hospital consultation/treatment waiting lists come down? Obviously, it's too soon to tell but healthcare and the NHS remain by far the biggest concern (51%) - compared with the mere 8% thinking of the constitution, an issue that does not win elections. Nor, surprisingly, do green/climate change issues (just 11%, down one point on May).

Unsurprisingly, however, immigration and crime are rising up people's political agenda, with the former at a survey peak of 13% (up three points on May) and the latter at a new high of 11% (up two points). The two are often wrongly linked, notably in tabloid media, but both may well prove growing headaches for the new UK government. We shall closely monitor trends here.

Overall, it's clear from this survey that the new UK government and whichever administration emerges from the elections to Holyrood due in May 2026 have a lot to do to convince a sceptical population that those "sunlit uphills" can be glimpsed around the corner. Again, hardly surprising after this dreich summer...

End

Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Austin Chan free from Unsplash 29.08.2024

Blog: Shaking off our misery?

Blog by David Gow, DHI Trustee

If the public mood in Scotland, as measured by the latest quarterly Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, is pretty much as bad as it seems, we might as well call off the final five weeks of campaigning in the UK general election and put the politicians out of their misery by voting now. 

After all, there are critical and more exciting events coming up like the opener in the Euros 24: Germany v Scotland on June 14 in Edinburgh's twin city Munich.

The latest tracker certainly paints a sombre picture of how we Scots feel. Almost two in three (62% compared with 58% three months ago) believe Scotland is moving in the wrong direction - the highest level since the series began. And less than one in five (19% compared with 23% in February) think it's heading the right way. These are devastating findings for our political class as a whole (which should read the findings and wake up to reality). 

The reality is that Scots are worried above all by Healthcare/the NHS - 52% view this as the top issue - and the cost of living (40%) though this latter concern is easing though hardly to the point where "turned the corner" talk is credible. And almost one in five (18%) list trust in politics as the critical issue - a number that's rising.

This does not amount to a conducive environment for a bog-standard campaign centred around "tax and spend" policies (like the one we're having now). Scottish voters are more than disgruntled. Their mood may not (or perhaps even may) amount to despair or rage but they certainly need a dose of hope and optimism. And please don't talk about the constitution - only 7% think it the priority issue.

The overall findings gave plenty of food for thought - and lively discussion - at the latest tracker's presentation in the historic home of RBS on St Andrew Square. It was a lovely late spring morning with sun shining through the upstairs windows and birds carolling us but the discussants were reflective, pondering the state we're in - not the one the politicians are peddling elsewhere.

Introduced by Scott Edgar of the Diffley Partnership, the tracker's results were analysed by Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, and João Sousa, Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander Institute, with a strong emphasis on cost of living issues, labour market developments and fiscal outcomes and outlooks.

This attendee was struck by several things, notably João's point that the rise in average earnings in Scotland, albeit outpacing inflation now, still remains below the increase in prices - i.e., people do not feel and indeed are not better off than last they were when they went to the polls in 2019. Indeed, this is the first time this has happened. The tracker shows Scottish sentiment in line with this: "...economic pessimism may prove hard to shake despite incremental improvements."

Women, especially those with children, are among the most pessimistic.  Even if some of the pessimism has lifted overall only 11% think things generally will improve (be much better or somewhat better) in 12 months' time and, when it comes to personal wellbeing, this rises to just 17%. Still, fewer folk are cutting down on leisure activities to make ends meet or losing sleep over their finances albeit the decline is quite marginal - and three in five Scots are still cutting back on non-essential purchases.

Sebastian intrigued the audience with the bank's internal evidence that its customers are dipping into their savings/deposit accounts when they're forced to make bigger outlays such as repairing the car. Overall, it seems, the struggle to remain on top of the monthly budget is as tough as it can get, notably for lots of younger folk. More than half of Scots (53%) remain dissatisfied with income covering the cost of living.

Campaign mantras such as "change" or "stability" in this context seem beside the point, especially when the fear lurks that the next government will be forced, willy nilly, to raise taxes in order to deal with a worsening UK fiscal position as the IMF and others have warned. It's a frequent message from a weary public when the TV crews conduct 'voxpops' in the pub or coffee shop.

Will the next tracker findings - due in late August or several weeks after the July 4 general election - reveal an uptick in optimism?

Don't hold your breath! It's more than likely that, whatever the outcome, voters will be suspending judgement (as many may do by abstaining and driving turnout down to historic lows) . What they most want is services delivery, not warm promises things can only get better. Are the candidates paying attention on the stump?

Watch the event recording:

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2024 Insights

Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Tadeusz Lakota free from Unsplash 03.06.2024

Press Release: Healthcare and Cost of Living Top Priorities for Scots ahead General Election

Latest in the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker series shows that healthcare and the cost of living remain the top concerns as candidates get set to make their offer to voters for the 4th of July election.

As Scotland gears up for the General Election, the latest survey from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker series reveals that healthcare and the cost of living are at the forefront of Scottish voters' minds as they get ready to decide how to cast their votes in July. 

Latest findings from the series show the top two issues for voters in Scotland are:

• one in two Scots (52%) cite healthcare and the NHS

• two in five (40%) the cost of living and inflation is a key issue

Graph to show the top priorities and issues cited in the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker over time.

A host of other issues remain important to Scots, including poverty/inequality, trust in politics, the economy, and housing, which are regularly selected as top issues facing Scotland by upwards of 15% or more of Scots. However, there are notable changes in prioritisation among these issues, with emphasis on trust in politics rising two percentage points to 18% and emphasis on the economy falling two percentage points to 17%.

The constitution and devolution is reported as a top issue by only 7% of Scots in the latest figures for May 2024.

As parties craft their platforms and campaign messages, these results indicate that healthcare and the cost of living will be key battlegrounds in the upcoming election. 

Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager at Diffley Partnership, said: 

“With 52% of Scots prioritising healthcare and 40% focused on the cost of living, it's clear that these will be decisive factors in the upcoming election. Parties who can effectively present solutions to these concerns over the course of the campaign are likely to gain a significant advantage at the polls.”

Susan Murray, Director of the David Hume Institute said: 

“These findings underscore the critical importance of healthcare and the cost of living for Scots as we approach the general election in July. Political candidates will need to address these issues head-on if they want to resonate with voters and secure their support”

Ends

Notes to Editor:

Designed by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,275 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 2nd-7th May . Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2021 estimates) by age and gender.

Image credit: sharing thumbnail image Nicholas J LeClerq free from Unsplash 27.05.2023