Blog: Rays of Sunshine in Research Gloom
Keith Robson from Open University Scotland shares his reflections on the latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker Insights, and how although gloomy, there are some rays of sunshine connected to his work.
Tuesday 2nd December
By Keith Robson
Keith Robson reflects on the latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker insights and how it connects to his work with The Open University in Scotland.
The Open University is the largest provider of part-time higher education in Scotland and is a world leader in providing innovative and flexible distance learning opportunities.
Last week I had the pleasure of attending the latest ‘Understanding Scotland’s Economy Tracker’ breakfast briefing. I’m a regular as you always get an interesting and often challenging perspective from the keynote speakers - and the audience. It aligns with the Open University’s mission to be open to people, places, methods and ideas.
At each event the results of the survey are expertly explained by Scott Edgar, from the Diffley Partnership. Delivered with humour in a straight-forward manner, Scott sets out what the survey data means for the people behind the figures. This quarter the David Hume Institute arranged reflections from Catherine McWilliam, from the Institute of Directors Scotland and Shan Saba, Director of Brightworks, Scotland’s leading recruitment agency to discuss the findings.
Let’s not beat about the bush - there is not much optimism in the findings.
Two out of three respondents reported that general economic conditions have worsened over the last twelve months. A further three in four respondents expect the general economy to worsen over the next year. Over half of respondents have cut back on non-essential spending.
The Open University is Scotland’s national widening access and lifelong learning university. We are the largest provider of undergraduate part-time higher education in Scotland. Therefore I was particularly struck by the Labour Market insights.
More than half of respondents said they would need to retrain or upskill if they want to get a new job. One in five said that they had not had any training through their employer since their initial induction.
The 2025 OU Business Barometer
These figures chime with the OU’s Business Barometer 2025 - a survey of 2000 senior decision makers across the UK; over half (52%) representing small and medium-sized businesses. Plus one thousand members of Gen Z (aged between 18 and 24) were also surveyed for the report.
For respondents in Scotland one in three say that budget constraints/lack of funding are barriers to offering more training. We also found a mismatch between employers and employees about training and job retention which was a discussion point with Catherine and Shan who shared their experiences.
The survey found that concerns about money matters were particularly prevalent for respondents in lower SIMD area, the young age group and those with children. Again, this mirrors our experiences of calls from students and in turn a reduced take-up of the Part Time Fee Grant for those students earning £25,000 or less per annum.
The OU’s Scottish Parliament election manifesto Skills for Life calls for a greater focus on flexible part-time learning with the need for upskilling and reskilling in the labour market. You can read more here.
So where does the sunshine come from amidst the gloomy outlook?
For me it is in our students’ success. We are supporting thousands of students to study in flexible ways that fit with their other commitments. Each year our graduation ceremonies are full of stories the bring rays of sunshine and hope.
I wholeheartedly recommend spending five minutes looking at the heartwarming stories on our website and challenge you not to feel uplifted.
Press release: Scots brace for tougher economic times
The latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker shows Scots’ deep pessimism about tougher economic times ahead.
23rd November 2025
New Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker shows bleak labour market outlook and rising financial strain ahead of UK Budget and Scottish election
Economic pressures continue to weigh heavily on households across Scotland. New data from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker reveals pessimism about both current and future financial conditions has grown since August, just as the UK Budget looms and six months remain until the Scottish Parliament election.
Seven in ten Scots (69%) say general economic conditions have worsened over the past year, up three percentage points from the previous wave, while almost half (47%) report their own financial circumstances have deteriorated. Looking ahead, seven in ten Scots (73%) expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months, and nearly half (47%) anticipate their personal finances will follow suit.
The report, commissioned by The David Hume Institute and produced by the Diffley Partnership, highlights how these concerns are shaping everyday life:
Around half of Scots have cut back on non-essential spending (53%) and leisure activities (51%), unchanged from August.
Nearly half (47%) have reduced heating or energy use, up five percentage points as winter approaches.
Three in ten (28%) report financial stress impacting mental health, while one in four (25%) have lost sleep over money worries.
One in five (22%) have used credit cards when they otherwise wouldn’t, and almost one in five (18%) say financial strain has affected their physical health.
Perception around the labour market outlook is also bleak: seven in ten (70%) Scots do not expect more job opportunities in the next year, and just one in four (24%) believe wages will keep pace with the cost of living. A majority (56%) think they would need to retrain to secure a new job. Meanwhile one in five (22%) report not receiving any employer-provided training beyond their initial induction.
Healthcare (47%) and the cost of living (38%) remain the top public priorities, but immigration continues to climb, with one in five (22%) now citing it as a top issue for Scotland—its highest level since the series began.
Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager at Diffley Partnership, said:
“This wave of data shows a public bracing for tougher times. Pessimism about the economy and personal finances is deepening, and concerns about job security and skills are widespread. With the UK Budget this week and the Scottish Parliament election just six months away, these findings underline the need for policy responses that address both immediate cost-of-living pressures and longer-term labour market resilience.”
Susan Murray from the David Hume Institute said
“Our latest research paints a picture of many people feeling squeezed from lots of directions. There is a sense that opportunities in the labour market are narrowing, wages won’t keep up with inflation, and a lack of training raises real questions for business owners seeking to boost the productivity of their workforce. With so many people still losing sleep over their finances, we are a long way from improving wellbeing and economic resilience. On Wednesday we will find out if the UK budget will bring some light at the end of the tunnel for those who are struggling.”
ENDS
Notes
Designed by the Diffley Partnership and The David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,245 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 1st-4th November 2025. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2023 estimates) by age and gender.
Blog: How Free Bus Passes for Young People are boosting the economy
Ellie Craig discusses how under 22’s free bus passes are helping to build a fairer, more connected, and more prosperous Scotland for everyone.
21st November 2025
by Ellie Craig MSYP
Ellie Craig MSYP is Chair of the Scottish Youth Parliament and the MSYP for Glasgow Cathcart. She is also a trustee of Young Scot and a board member of The National Lottery Community Fund. Outside of her governance roles, Ellie is about to enter her final year at the University of Glasgow, studying Politics and Sociology and also works as a youth worker for a young carers centre.
When Scotland introduced free bus travel for everyone under 22, the policy was often discussed in terms of fairness and sustainability. But beyond the social benefits, there’s an important economic story to tell.
Free bus passes for young people aren’t just a transport policy — they’re an economic multiplier. That means the money invested by the government generates wider and repeated benefits across the economy. With over 250 million journeys taken since the scheme launched three years ago, it is clear that this is a conversation worth having.
Saving Money, Spending Locally
At the most basic level, free bus travel saves young people and their families money. The average bus fare in Scotland can quickly add up, especially for students or apprentices commuting daily. When that cost disappears, young people have more disposable income to spend on other things — food, clothes, social activities, or technology.
This change in spending behaviour creates a multiplier effect. Every pound not spent on bus fares is likely to be spent in local shops or cafes, supporting small businesses and helping them pay wages, which in turn are spent again in the economy. The benefits ripple outward, supporting more jobs and local growth.
Opening Doors to Opportunity
The economic impact isn’t just about what young people buy — it’s also about where they can go. Free bus travel gives young people greater access to jobs, apprenticeships, colleges, and universities, especially in rural or low-income areas where transport costs can be a major barrier.
In urban areas where there are more bus options, it is also resulting in more school trips as teachers no longer have to worry about increasing the cost of the school day by asking parents for additional money.
With more affordable access to work and education, young people can build skills, earn higher incomes, and contribute more to the economy over their lifetimes. In this way, the policy boosts productivity and strengthens Scotland’s future workforce. It’s an investment not only in public transport but in human capital — the skills and potential of the next generation.
Reviving Town Centres
Free bus travel also helps reconnect communities. Many young people use their bus passes to travel to high streets, cinemas, sports clubs, and cafes that they might otherwise struggle to reach. This movement supports local businesses, encouraging more activity in towns and city centres that have struggled with declining footfall.
When these businesses do well, they hire more staff, pay more taxes, and buy more from suppliers — all of which adds up to stronger local economies. It’s a clear example of how public spending in one area can trigger private spending and growth in others.
Long-Term Savings for Society
There are also longer-term financial benefits. When more young people can access education and work, fewer need unemployment or welfare support. Building people’s confidence on public transport early in life also reduces car use so lowers congestion, reduces emissions, and improves public health — all of which save money for government and taxpayers over time.
The Bigger Picture
In economics, a multiplier describes how one initial investment can lead to a larger overall increase in national income. Free bus passes for young people in Scotland do exactly that. By cutting transport costs, opening up opportunity, and encouraging local spending, they create economic benefits that far exceed the initial government outlay.
This is why young people in Scotland are calling for expansion of the scheme up to 25 and across all forms of public transport. This policy features as part of the Scottish Youth Parliament's Manifesto for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, ‘Dear Scotland’s Future’. Read about all 31 policies here.
In short, this isn’t just a policy about buses — it’s about building a fairer, more connected, and more prosperous Scotland for everyone.
Press release – Many Scots are one emergency away from debt
New findings from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker reveal a significant of Scots are just one unexpected bill away from crisis.
New findings from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker highlight the precarious financial position of many Scots. Significant numbers of people are just one unexpected bill away from crisis.
1 in 5 people (22%) cannot cover a £100 emergency expense without borrowing money
This figure doubles to 44% for a £500 emergency, demonstrating a widespread lack of financial resilience.
The research also exposes how economic insecurity is affecting wellbeing and productivity, with more than nine in ten (95%) respondents saying that people are less effective at work when financial stress disrupts sleep or nutrition. The latest research shows that one in four (26%) of Scots report having lost sleep due to concerns about money matters.
The findings reveal strong public support for structural solutions:
9 in 10 (89%) think employers have a responsibility to pay wages that meet people’s basic needs.
8 in 10 (80%) say that failing to meet basic needs now will cost more in the long term.
7 in 10 (70%) think we have a collective responsibility to maintain a safety net in tough times.
Women are especially likely to express these views:
9 in 10 (92%) of women say employers should pay enough to meet basic needs, 6% more than men at 86%.
Women are also more likely to understand the impact of unmet need today resulting in higher public costs later (84% v 77%)
There is less consensus around how to fund protections - 39% of respondents would pay more in tax to ensure an effective social security safety net, while 38% disagree.
Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager, at the Diffley Partnership said:
“This data shows that while some economic indicators may be stabilising, many people in Scotland are still living with significant financial uncertainty. These pressures don’t exist in isolation, they can affect people’s health, their ability to work, and their overall sense of security. It’s important we understand the scale of the issue and the potential long-term impact on the economy and society.”
Susan Murray from the David Hume Institute said
“These findings confirm too many Scots continue to live on a financial knife-edge. When people lack the means to absorb even small shocks, it doesn't just harm their wellbeing, it undermines our collective economic potential. A resilient economy needs more financially secure households. The majority of the public clearly understands this connection with strong support for fair wages and a robust safety net. Sadly despite some economic indicators beginning to change, few Scots can see any light at the end of the tunnel”
ENDS
Notes:
The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker received 2,326 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 1st-6th May. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2023 estimates) by age and gender. The survey is conducted by the Diffley Partnership on behalf of The David Hume Institute.
Blog: Flexible Working - productive vs reductive debate?
Lynn Houmdi discusses home working vs return to office in the context of productivity. Why is the debate so often over simplified?
27st January 2025
by Lynn Houmdi
Lynn Houmdi is founder of Flexible Working Scotland, Co-creator of Making Work Work and Senior Manager, The Challenges Group. She supports people - particularly women - to find or create meaningful work that works with all the other commitments and enjoyment of life. Prior to this Lynn had a career in public policy and diplomacy.
Last week we witnessed another wave of media attention on flexible working, prompted largely by the BBC Panorama episode which aired on 20 January, “Should we still be working from home?”
In recent months, we have seen a surge of RTO (return to office) mandates, calling employees back into the office for all or part of the week and reversing policies put in place during the pandemic.
In the media, the flexible working debate is often over-simplified as a binary: in the office or working from home. In fact, there are literally hundreds of flexible working patterns, because every variant could be combined with one or more others. For example, someone might work part-time, hybrid. Another employee might have flexible start and finish times to their day while working remotely.
Evidence based decisions?
There is a body of research emerging which suggests that decisions around RTO are not being taken on the basis of evidence around productivity but on personal bias (by older, male CEOs);[1] on the basis of sector trends (everyone else is, so we had better); to reassert control over employees, blaming them for bad firm performance;[2] or as a means to reduce headcount without redundancies.[3] Research published in November 2024 by recruitment platform Indeed found that 44% of managers and 55% of employees felt RTO was less about purpose and more about keeping up appearances.[4]
In assessing whether a particular form of flexible working is good for productivity, firms need to first be able to measure productivity. In some industries, this is simple - number of calls answered or number of lines coded. In many others, it is much more complex.
Productivity may be improved by the time or location of work. While someone may feel productive ploughing through emails at home, are they also productive in the office catching up with colleagues? On the other hand, too much time at home may lead to isolation, impacting productivity and belonging in the longer term. How do we measure this?
It is also necessary to understand the fundamental role of two important - and interrelated - elements of productivity: good managerial practice (including performance management) and trust. According to the Chartered Management Institute, over 80% of managers are so-called accidental managers, meaning they took on managerial responsibilities without formal training. Someone who is ill-equipped to manage people they can see from their desk is unlikely to be able to manage well when team members are working flexibly.
Trust is vital.
Only a good manager can engender trust. Trust is vital in employee engagement, retention, productivity and wellbeing. The most efficient scenario is one where an employer does not take on people who are not trustworthy, manages performance supportively and well, and does not act in a way which undermines trust. However, life is not only more complex than tabloids suggest, businesses do not always operate efficiently.
Despite an apparent dislike of remote working among some prominent senior leaders, it is enabling a greater supply of labour, as more disabled workers, women and parents access work. It is a magnet for talent, meaning firms can recruit sought-after skills from a much wider radius. It is also driving technological advances and investment.
Nick Bloom, the Stanford Professor featured in the Panorama programme wrote in a paper for the IMF that the impact of remote working depends on how it is managed. He goes on to say:
“While the micro productivity impacts on any individual firm may be neutral, the huge power of labour market inclusion means that the aggregate macro impact is likely to be positive.”
And while he acknowledges the negative impact on city centre retail and commercial property prices, retail spend is being displaced to suburbs and commercial property has the potential to be repurposed for housing.[1]
In that frustrating way that real life is often more complex than tabloid headlines would suggest, one size does not fit all. Not only for individuals, but for businesses. As managers and leaders, we need to move away from fluffy phrases such as “flexible working” towards honest, evidence-based discussions of how, where and when people deliver their best work.
Happy workers are productive workers.
If we accept that diversity is good for business, then a greater diversity of working patterns is good for individuals, for businesses and for the economy, because diverse workforces are not built on the assumption that everyone delivers their best work in the same way.
The reductionist debate of remote vs. the office is unhelpful, not least in erasing the experience of many front-line and customer-facing employees and key workers who wish they had the choice.
Ends
References
[1] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nick-bloom-stanford_three-papers-analyzed-1200-us-return-to-activity-7250871032759099392-qYVI
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4675401
[3] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nick-bloom-stanford_employees-appear-to-be-pushing-back-more-activity-7272263800437764097-ocrj
[4] https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/return-to-office-appearance/
Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Adolfo Félix free from Unsplash 27.1.25
Blog: Scotland needs economic hope
Blog from DHI trustee, David Gow reflecting on our latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker.
27th November 2024
by David Gow, DHI Trustee
"Fings can only get worse," warned PM Keir Starmer in a negative take on the 1993 D:Ream anthem that ushered in the last Labour government and the Northern Ireland band has now banned the party from using. It's one message from the Prime Minister the public fully believes in five months after Labour's landslide win.
Our latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, the 13th 'wave' in the series, highlights a deepening pessimism among Scots, young and old, about their own and the country's prospects. Almost two-thirds (63%, up 9% on the August survey) believe the economy has worsened in the past year and 65% (up 13 points) expect a further deterioration. At a personal level, the sense of doom is slightly less dark: at 48%/44%. But don't hold your breath.
It's pretty plain that Scots, like most Brits, know and feel that the UK is measurably poorer now than it was, say, pre-pandemic or pre-Brexit or pre-great financial crisis even over a decade ago. The last parliament (2019-24) saw the worst decline in earnings growth for over 60 years and the "boomers'" children are worse off than their parents. Too many of these are now attracted to the Far Right - across Europe and elsewhere.
Sebastian Burnside, NatWest chief economist, told me at the tracker's launch (25 November) that he didn't expect a new recession but with Donald Trump already slapping prospective tariff hikes on Canada, Mexico and China it must be nip and tuck. A generalised tit-for-tat trade war will almost certainly deepen any recessionary tendencies, notably in the eurozone, with the ghost of Smoot Hawley 2.0 worrying the hell out of policymakers and observers. (Or it should be!)
Skipped meals and depression
Almost a half (47%) of younger Scots, according to our survey, say economic anxieties and pressures are affecting their mental health - a finding true of a third (32%) of Scots as a whole. Three in ten of us are losing sleep over our finances. People are cutting back on buying fresh food products and skipping meals (as many as 19%) and this is more true of young people than other demographic groups.
For me and others the greatest worry is the impact upon young children. Danny Dorling, Professor of Geography at Oxford University and a surprise guest at the launch, commented the worst affected in terms of the rise in child poverty in the Europe is England, he shocked us. No English county outperforms Scotland in this regard. In terms of economic pessimism, suggested this was a global trend - with some notable exceptions in countries such as India... and Russia - for other reasons.
This, of course, is no consolation. Around a quarter of a million of Scottish children (26%) live in relative poverty and the Scottish Government is way off reaching its 10% target by 2030-31, even with the Child Payment. We all need hope but our young people, above all children, need an injection of this most of all if we are to begin to tackle the enduring UK/Scottish problem of low productivity growth which, as Burnside said, is the biggest source of declining living standards.
Investing in the future
Rachel Reeves, the UK chancellor, is struggling to inject hope and optimism into business and consumers for all her talk of investment and growth. Our tracker, equally, sets a high bar for Shona Robison, finance secretary, to cross when she presents the Scottish Budget on December 4. Even the unexpected boost to the Scottish Government's net fiscal position from the first Reeves budget - "transformed" according to the IFS - may not be enough.
Robison, cannot promise the earth but she could and should offer the prospects of a (eventually) more stable outlook and put the emphasis on investment in education and training as well as in the most promising economic sectors, including the (struggling) creative industry. Our tracker points to an urgent need, above all, to restore public confidence in the future.
"Get Scotland Working" is likely to be a theme (h/t the UK version unveiled on November 26) for her to adopt. Not in terms of unemployment but incentives to enter or re-enter the labour market, notably among the more than 300,000 Scots on adult disability payment and those economically inactive as a whole (22.6% of the 16-64 age group) of which there are a staggering 9m in the UK.
However, for many work is not a route out of poverty or cutting the welfare bill, with around four in ten of those on Universal Credit in Scotland, being in work. Low paid and precarious work traps many in a constant battle to make ends meet - this certainly won’t help boost productivity with so many people losing sleep over their finances.
Collectively, Scottish politicians and civil society need to turn around what is one of the most arresting tracker findings: a net 64% of our citizens believe the economy works in the interests of the wealthy while a net -56% think it does not work for them individually.
Press Release: Scots report increased financial pressure impacting their work and home life
The latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker poses big questions for Shona Robison ahead of the Scottish Budget.
Monday 25th November 2024
48% of people living in Scotland believe their financial situation is worse than a year ago, our independent quarterly tracker has revealed.
Since August 2024, there has been a six percentage point rise in people feeling that their own finances have worsened in the last year – with 3 in 10 people (29%) admitting they have lost sleep over money.
While 63% believe that the general economic conditions are worse, up nine percentage points, 65% of people said they believe that the general economic conditions will continue to decline, up 13 points on the last quarter.
The latest results for the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, from the David Hume Institute and polling experts Diffley Partnership, suggest a growing lack of optimism over the last three months and pose big questions for Shona Robison ahead of the Scottish Budget.
The latest edition of the survey from November 2024 shows that:
More than 1 in 6 people (17%) report strained relationships at home because of money
1 in 6 Scots (16%) report an impact on their physical health due to worries about money
1 in 3 people (32%) report an impact on their mental health due to worries about money
Only 15% say that concerns about money matters have not affected them
3 out of 4 people (75%) believe the economy works primarily in the interests of wealthy people
This shift towards a less positive outlook suggests that political messaging from Prime Minister Keir Starmer that “things will get worse before they get better” ahead of Labour’s first budget in October has been heard loud and clear by Scots.
However, there is not a complete lack of optimism with younger Scots more likely to believe that their financial fortunes will turn. Those aged between 16 and 34 appear more optimistic with 25% saying they believe their own economic situation will get better. This compares to just 6% of 45 to 54 year-olds, 8% aged 55 to 64, and 5% of over 65s.
When looking at the policy priorities for Scots, healthcare and the NHS remains the top priority of Scots with nearly half (47%) citing this as one of the top three issues facing Scotland. A third (34%) cite cost of living and inflation, this has declined eight percentage points from November 2023. One in five (19%) put poverty/inequality among the top three issues facing Scotland.
Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager, at the Diffley Partnership said:
“The latest findings from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker show that public confidence in the economy has taken a massive hit over the last three months.
People are reporting that concerns over money matters are impacting their work, home life, and health.
With two-thirds of Scots expecting the economy to worsen over the next twelve months, many will be looking to next week’s Scottish Budget as a chance to offer a signal of confidence in the nation’s economic future.”
Susan Murray from the David Hume Institute said
“With the Scottish Government’s budget just over a week away, there is an opportunity for Finance Secretary Shona Robison take on board the large number of people struggling financially.
“However, as the weather turns colder, it feels like there is a long hard winter ahead for many. I hope all political parties take on board the large number of people feeling so stretched as the political horse-trading starts to get the Scottish budget passed.
“The economy will not turn a corner and productivity will not increase until more people are sleeping easily at night and not lying awake worrying about money.”
Notes to editors:
Designed by the Diffley Partnership and the David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,233 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 1st-5th November. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2021 estimates) by age and gender.
Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Claudia Wolff, free from Unsplash on 24.11.2024
Blog: Are we singing a new song?
New blog from David Gow, DHI Trustee, are we singing a new song? Can things only get worse?
29th August 2024
by David Gow, DHI Trustee
"Fings can only get worse," Sir Keir Starmer intoned in the 10 Downing Street rose garden on August 27 in a reverse reprise of Labour's 1997 campaign song . "Before they get better." He added that the UK should "accept short-term pain for long-term gain." It's a tough ask but maybe Scots at least are up for it.
Perhaps, indeed. What emerges from our latest quarterly survey of voter sentiment towards the Scottish Economy, Understanding Scotland, is that Scots are increasingly torn between feeling (a shade) more upbeat and anxious, between modest optimism and continuing pessimism.
Certainly, more than half (56%) of the 2227 respondents to the survey conducted exactly a month after the July 4 General Election still think Scotland is heading in the wrong direction but that's six points down on the record 62% in May while those believing the opposite are up four points at 23%.
What's more, fears about the cost of living/inflation at 58% are down close to levels last seen in January 2022 (56%), probably reflecting the upturn in earnings and even (some) lower prices. (The survey pre-dates Ofgem's announcement of a 10% hike in energy guide prices). Most tellingly, those thinking that general economic conditions are worse than 12 months ago have fallen to 52% (net) or the lowest level since the survey began in October 2021. Personal negativity is down to 42% from a high of 65% in November 2022 while optimism is up to 15% (net) - hardly a dizzying decline but worth monitoring to see if it upticks
As we and our colleagues at the Diffley Partnership say in the report's intro, "a growing proportion are unsure about the country’s direction, suggesting a populace still searching for clarity in uncertain times." As we point out, there remains a significant sense of precarity, notably among families with children.
Unhealthy options among the poor
More than one in five (22%) is still cutting back on fruit and veg to cut food bills, a bad signal for a nation fighting rampant obesity, while a similar number is reducing meal/portion sizes to save money - the same goal pursued by the 14% skipping meals. It's surely bad news that more than a half (52%) admits to shopping on price rather than health, while a quarter or more is eating processed food and/or cheap food requiring little or no cooking. And we know from here and elsewhere that it's poorer parents, particularly young mothers, who skimp on meals so they can feed their kids.
Financial resilience remains worryingly high among less well-off households. A third of households with children are not confident they could raise £100 in an emergency without borrowing, a level that rises to 58% when the required loan is £500. Inequality may not be a substantial policy issue (at just 8%) but poverty remains among the biggest priorities (27%).
Tax and spend alerts
Ahead of the October 30 Budget (UK) and the Scottish Government's renewed brake on spending, concern about manging public finances is on the up - at 29% compared with 24% a year ago. And a third remains convinced spending on public services is an important issue facing the Scottish economy. Rachel Reeves' "black hole" is clearly and understandably putting the wind up a lot of folk., including actual and/or potential pensioners (a concern for 12% or up three points on May.)
Will hospital consultation/treatment waiting lists come down? Obviously, it's too soon to tell but healthcare and the NHS remain by far the biggest concern (51%) - compared with the mere 8% thinking of the constitution, an issue that does not win elections. Nor, surprisingly, do green/climate change issues (just 11%, down one point on May).
Unsurprisingly, however, immigration and crime are rising up people's political agenda, with the former at a survey peak of 13% (up three points on May) and the latter at a new high of 11% (up two points). The two are often wrongly linked, notably in tabloid media, but both may well prove growing headaches for the new UK government. We shall closely monitor trends here.
Overall, it's clear from this survey that the new UK government and whichever administration emerges from the elections to Holyrood due in May 2026 have a lot to do to convince a sceptical population that those "sunlit uphills" can be glimpsed around the corner. Again, hardly surprising after this dreich summer...
End
Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Austin Chan free from Unsplash 29.08.2024
New Report: Who will do the jobs in Scotland?
Current employment rates in Scotland are at a near-record high. However, Scotland’s population is ageing fast and there is a low birth rate.
By 2041, the pension-age population is projected to increase by 265,000, while the working-age population is only projected to rise by 38,000.
This report discusses the challenges facing Scotland with changes to migration patterns and a shortage of workers. What can we do to meet the labour supply challenges in Scotland. Who will do the jobs?
Current employment rates in Scotland are at a near-record high. However, Scotland’s population is ageing fast and there is a low birth rate.
By 2041, the pension-age population is projected to increase by 265,000, while the working-age population is only projected to rise by 38,000.
This report discusses the challenges facing Scotland with changes to migration patterns and a shortage of workers. What can we do to meet the labour supply challenges in Scotland. Who will do the jobs?