Press release: Scots brace for tougher economic times
23rd November 2025
New Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker shows bleak labour market outlook and rising financial strain ahead of UK Budget and Scottish election
Economic pressures continue to weigh heavily on households across Scotland. New data from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker reveals pessimism about both current and future financial conditions has grown since August, just as the UK Budget looms and six months remain until the Scottish Parliament election.
Seven in ten Scots (69%) say general economic conditions have worsened over the past year, up three percentage points from the previous wave, while almost half (47%) report their own financial circumstances have deteriorated. Looking ahead, seven in ten Scots (73%) expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months, and nearly half (47%) anticipate their personal finances will follow suit.
The report, commissioned by The David Hume Institute and produced by the Diffley Partnership, highlights how these concerns are shaping everyday life:
Around half of Scots have cut back on non-essential spending (53%) and leisure activities (51%), unchanged from August.
Nearly half (47%) have reduced heating or energy use, up five percentage points as winter approaches.
Three in ten (28%) report financial stress impacting mental health, while one in four (25%) have lost sleep over money worries.
One in five (22%) have used credit cards when they otherwise wouldn’t, and almost one in five (18%) say financial strain has affected their physical health.
Perception around the labour market outlook is also bleak: seven in ten (70%) Scots do not expect more job opportunities in the next year, and just one in four (24%) believe wages will keep pace with the cost of living. A majority (56%) think they would need to retrain to secure a new job. Meanwhile one in five (22%) report not receiving any employer-provided training beyond their initial induction.
Healthcare (47%) and the cost of living (38%) remain the top public priorities, but immigration continues to climb, with one in five (22%) now citing it as a top issue for Scotland—its highest level since the series began.
Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager at Diffley Partnership, said:
“This wave of data shows a public bracing for tougher times. Pessimism about the economy and personal finances is deepening, and concerns about job security and skills are widespread. With the UK Budget this week and the Scottish Parliament election just six months away, these findings underline the need for policy responses that address both immediate cost-of-living pressures and longer-term labour market resilience.”
Susan Murray from the David Hume Institute said
“Our latest research paints a picture of many people feeling squeezed from lots of directions. There is a sense that opportunities in the labour market are narrowing, wages won’t keep up with inflation, and a lack of training raises real questions for business owners seeking to boost the productivity of their workforce. With so many people still losing sleep over their finances, we are a long way from improving wellbeing and economic resilience. On Wednesday we will find out if the UK budget will bring some light at the end of the tunnel for those who are struggling.”
ENDS
Notes
Designed by the Diffley Partnership and The David Hume Institute, the survey received 2,245 responses from a representative sample of the adult population, aged 16+, across Scotland. Invitations were issued online using the ScotPulse panel, and fieldwork was conducted between the 1st-4th November 2025. Results are weighted to the Scottish population (2023 estimates) by age and gender.
