Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - February 2025

Published Monday 24th February 2025

Our latest independent quarterly tracker has revealed the economy is emerging as a key priority as 62% of Scots say conditions have worsened in past year.

Key findings:

• Health care and the cost of living remain top priorities, with the economy emerging as a high priority for Scots

  Healthcare continues to dominate as the most pressing issue for Scots, increasing by four percentage points to 50% naming it as a priority. Cost of living remains stable at 34%. Meanwhile, the proportion identifying the economy as a priority has risen by four percentage points to 20% after hitting a low of 16% in November 2024.

• Glimmers of optimism as more Scots see the country heading in the right direction

  While 53% of Scots still believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, this is down three percentage points from the last wave. At the same time, optimism is growing, with 24% now saying Scotland is on the right path - an increase of four percentage points. Meanwhile, 23% remain uncertain, with optimism narrowly overtaking uncertainty for the first time in recent waves.

• Economic outlook remains bleak

  A majority of Scots (62%) say economic conditions have worsened over the past year, and 64% believe they will deteriorate further in the next year. While this marks a slight decline of one to two percentage points in pessimism since the last wave, optimism has not grown, with fewer than one in ten reporting an improvement in the last year or predicting an improvement over the next year.

• Cost-cutting becomes routine but financial strain hits some harder

  Spending cutbacks remain widespread, with 53% of Scots reducing leisure activities, 52% cutting non- essential spending, and 45% saving less than usual—figures that have changed little since November 2024. However, financial strain is more pronounced among Scots aged 16-34, those in lower social grades, households with children, and ethnic minorities, particularly affecting their mental health, physical well-being, and sleep.

• Signs of recovery for some sectors but non-essential spending cuts persist

  Spending reductions are expected to continue this year, particularly in dining out, with 45% cutting back on takeaways and deliveries and 43% on restaurants. However, there are small signs of recovery in certain areas: the proportion expecting to spend more on clothing and footwear is up five percentage points, while leisure and culture and holidays outside the UK have seen increases of three percentage points each.

Three key graphs from the report below.

Image credit: Sharing thumbnail image and report front cover by Sinitta Leunen, free licence from Unsplash 23.02.25

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - November 2024

Our independent quarterly tracker has revealed that 48% of people living in Scotland believe their financial situation is worse than a year ago.

Since August 2024, there has been a six percentage point rise in people feeling that their own finances have worsened in the last year – with 3 in 10 people (29%) admitting they have lost sleep over money.

While 63% believe that the general economic conditions are worse, up nine percentage points, 65% of people said they believe that the general economic conditions will continue to decline, up 13 points on the last quarter.  

The latest results for the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, from the David Hume Institute and polling experts Diffley Partnership, suggest a growing lack of optimism over the last three months and pose big questions for Shona Robison ahead of the Scottish Budget.

The latest edition of the survey from November 2024 shows that:

• More than 1 in 6 people (17%) report strained relationships at home because of money

• 1 in 6 Scots (16%) report an impact on their physical health due to worries about money

• 1 in 3 people (32%) report an impact on their mental health due to worries about money

• Only 15%  say that concerns about money matters have not affected them

• 3 out of 4 people (75%) believe the economy works primarily in the interests of wealthy people

However, there is not a complete lack of optimism with younger Scots more likely to believe that their financial fortunes will turn. Those aged between 16 and 34 appear more optimistic with 25% saying they believe their own economic situation will get better. This compares to just 6% of 45 to 54 year-olds, 8% aged 55 to 64, and 5% of over 65s.

When looking at the policy priorities for Scots, healthcare and the NHS remains the top priority of Scots with nearly half (47%) citing this as one of the top three issues facing Scotland.  A third (34%) cite cost of living and inflation, this has declined eight percentage points from November 2023. One in five (19%) put poverty/inequality among the top three issues facing Scotland.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - August 2024

29th August 2024

Our independent quarterly tracker has revealed that one in three (36%) people living in Scotland consider the cost of living as one of their top concerns, down 12% on this time last year.

According to the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker from the David Hume Institute and polling experts the Diffley Partnership, while concern about the cost of living has fallen, healthcare remains the key concern for the public, selected by over half (51%) of respondents as a key worry.

The data was collected at the start of August, a month after the General Election, against a backdrop of economic insecurity, mounting concern about public expenditure and a wave of anti-migrant riots.In our first survey since the General Election, data reveals some green shoots of optimism.

• Over half (54%) of people in Scotland believe that general economic conditions are worse now than a year ago - a considerable fall from the 2 in 3 (66%) that agreed with this statement in May.

• 1 in 3 (35%) of those that express an opinion believe that general economic conditions are about the same as they were in August of last year, an increase of 11%. 

• 15% of households with children say they feel better off than a year ago, compared to 10% reporting the same in August 2023 and 9% in August 2022.

Read more:

• Press Release - Green shoots of optimism as fewer Scots concerned by cost of living

• David Gow's Blog - Are we singing a new song?

• Watch the event recording here.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2024

The latest survey from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker series reveals that healthcare and the cost of living are at the forefront of Scottish voters' minds as they get ready to decide how to cast their votes in July. 

Latest findings from the series show the top two issues for voters in Scotland are:

• one in two Scots (52%) cite healthcare and the NHS

• two in five (40%) the cost of living and inflation is a key issue.

A host of other issues remain important to Scots, including poverty/inequality, trust in politics, the economy, and housing, which are regularly selected as top issues facing Scotland by upwards of 15% or more of Scots. However, there are notable changes in prioritisation among these issues, with emphasis on trust in politics rising two percentage points to 18% and emphasis on the economy falling two percentage points to 17%.

The constitution and devolution is reported as a top issue by only 7% of Scots in the latest figures for May 2024.

Read more:

• Press release: Health Care and Cost of Living Top Priorities for Scots ahead of General Election.

• David Gow’s blog: Shaking off our misery?

• Catriona Matheson’s blog: People’s priorities laid our for politicians.

• Watch the event recording here.