Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - August 2024

29th August 2024

Our independent quarterly tracker has revealed that one in three (36%) people living in Scotland consider the cost of living as one of their top concerns, down 12 percentage points year on this time last year.

According to the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker from the David Hume Institute and polling experts the Diffley Partnership, while concern about the cost of living has fallen, healthcare remains the key concern for the public, selected by over half (51%) of respondents as a key worry.

The data was collected at the start of August, a month after the General Election, against a backdrop of economic insecurity, mounting concern about public expenditure and a wave of anti-migrant riots.In our first survey since the General Election, data reveals some green shoots of optimism.

• Over half (54%) of people in Scotland believe that general economic conditions are worse now than a year ago - a considerable fall from the 2 in 3 (66%) that agreed with this statement in May.

• 1 in 3 (35%) of those that express an opinion believe that general economic conditions are about the same as they were in August of last year, an increase of 11%. 

• 15% of households with children say they feel better off than a year ago, compared to 10% reporting the same in August 2023 and 9% in August 2022.

Read more:

• Press Release - Green shoots of optimism as fewer Scots concerned by cost of living

• David Gow's Blog - Are we singing a new song?

• Watch the event recording here.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2024

The latest survey from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker series reveals that healthcare and the cost of living are at the forefront of Scottish voters' minds as they get ready to decide how to cast their votes in July. 

Latest findings from the series show the top two issues for voters in Scotland are:

• one in two Scots (52%) cite healthcare and the NHS

• two in five (40%) the cost of living and inflation is a key issue.

A host of other issues remain important to Scots, including poverty/inequality, trust in politics, the economy, and housing, which are regularly selected as top issues facing Scotland by upwards of 15% or more of Scots. However, there are notable changes in prioritisation among these issues, with emphasis on trust in politics rising two percentage points to 18% and emphasis on the economy falling two percentage points to 17%.

The constitution and devolution is reported as a top issue by only 7% of Scots in the latest figures for May 2024.

Read more:

• Press release: Health Care and Cost of Living Top Priorities for Scots ahead of General Election.

• David Gow’s blog: Shaking off our misery?

• Catriona Matheson’s blog: People’s priorities laid our for politicians.

• Watch the event recording here.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - February 2024

Our survey shows two in three Scots (67%) have resorted to reducing non-essential purchases, while significant proportions continue measures such as cutting back on energy use (64%) and leisure activities (62%).

Additionally 45% report decreased savings contributions, and over a third are tapping into them for everyday expenses. These coping mechanisms are particularly prevalent among younger age groups, underscoring the disproportionate impact of the high cost of living on working-age individuals.

The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker survey tracks economic attitudes and spending intentions from more than 2,000 members of the Scottish adult population every 3 months.  The fast turnaround time, as the data is published two weeks after collection, means early identification of changes in trends to support decision-makers.    

The study reveals a cautious outlook among Scots regarding future spending. Both essential and non-essential spending expectations show little change, indicating ongoing caution amidst economic uncertainty.

Furthermore, the latest findings highlight generational divides in priorities.  Healthcare and the NHS are paramount among older age groups, whilst younger individuals are more focused on addressing rising living costs.

The study also reveals growing doubts among Scots about Scotland's trajectory, with the majority (58%) believing that the country is heading in the wrong direction. This marks a three-percentage-point increase from the previous wave and reflects an increasing sense of pessimism about the future.

Read more:

• Press release - Two thirds of Scots continue to reduce spending.

• David Gow’s blog - Scotland’s Generational divide - the economy.

• Watch the launch event recording here.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - November 2023

The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, produced by the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership, marks its second birthday, showing many Scots continue to take extreme measures to navigate turbulent economic times:

• 1 in 6 people (17%) report skipping meals

• 1 in 5 people are using ‘buy now pay later’ payment plans

• 2 out of 3 people (67%) are not putting the heating on to reduce costs

For many, the ongoing challenges with the cost of living are dominating their lives with:

• 3 in 10 (29%) Scots telling us they are losing sleep due to their personal finances

Many Scots are living with severe financial precarity:

• 3 in 10 people (28%) are not confident of covering a £100 emergency expense – up three percentage points since February 2023

• This rises to 1 in 2 (49%) for an emergency expense of £500

The survey also shows 8 in 10 Scots perceive the economy as favouring the wealthy (78%), while 53% believe it primarily serves business interests.  Only 1 in 10 (10%) believe that the economy works in their own interest.

Healthcare (48%) and cost of living (42%) remain among the top concerns for Scots. 

Over three-fifths of Scots (62%) view the cost of living and inflation as a key economic priority, though this is down five percentage points from August. Poverty has become a significant concern for 32% of respondents, up three percentage points from August.

The Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker survey gathers economic attitudes and insights from more than 2,000 members of the Scottish adult population every 3 months to track changes over time. 

Read more:

• Press release - Two years of tracking shows Scots struggling with turbulent economic times.

• Shan Saba’s blog - Avoiding the cost of living carnage.

• Watch the event recording here.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2023

The most recent data from the David Hume Institute and Diffley Partnership’s regular economy tracker reveals a mixed picture of public opinion on the economy.

The economic outlook from Scots remains bleak with 62% thinking that general economic conditions will be worse in a years’ time (although this is down very slightly from 66% in February) and 45% think their personal financial situation will be worse in a years’ time (down from 48% in February).

However, while we have seen a reduction in the number of people thinking that things will be worse, optimism is not rising. Many Scots think that the economic outlook will remain the same over the next 12 months suggesting that they think that the costs and challenges they face are here to stay.

Is this a sign of people adjusting to a new normal?

In order to meet increased costs, many Scots are running down their savings, turning to credit and stopping paying into pensions:

• 4 in 10 Scots (42%) report having taken money out of their savings to
  cover higher costs

• 1 in 4 have used a credit card to make for purchases that they wouldn’t
  usually

• 1 in % have used ‘buy now pay later’ schemes to cover everyday
  spending

• A small but increasing number of Scots have stopped contributing to a
  pension (7%)

Turning to high-cost borrowing options for everyday essentials can cause the accumulation of substantial debt which will affect people’s lives for many years to come.

The Understanding Scotland: economy tracker is produced in partnership between the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership. The survey gathers economic attitudes and insights from more than 2,000 members of the Scottish adult population every 3 months to track changes over time.

Read more:

• Press release - The cost of living is driving difficult choices.

• Blog by Shona McCarthy - Budgeting to save a global asset.

• Watch the event recording here.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - February 2023

The most recent data from the David Hume Institute and Diffley Partnership’s regular economic survey reveals a mixed picture of public opinion on the economy: while overwhelming pessimism coupled and evidence of harsh financial realities for households persists, people’s predictions for the next year appear less dire than in previous waves of data collection. Whether this is a sign of people adjusting to a new normal, or genuinely feeling things are improving, remains to be seen.

Scots are continuing to struggle to make ends meet as dissatisfaction with income levels remains high and people carry on cutting their discretionary spending levels in response to rising prices. On top of this people are being pushed into forgoing basic necessities, engaging in risky financial behaviours, and looking to change jobs or take on extra hours.

New questions for this iteration have displayed a stark financial fragility across the population, although this is not experienced equally. A significant minority of people are not confident that they could pay an emergency expense of £100 without having to borrow or take out a loan, and this number sharply increases for an emergency expense of £500. For those in the most deprived areas of Scotland, these numbers are much higher.

Read more:

• Press release - Scots’ pessimism about economic conditions remains.

• Guest blog - Shan Saba’s view from the West.

• Watch the launch event recording here.

Latest Understanding Scotland: Economy - November 2022

Latest research insights from the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership on economic attitudes and behaviours has revealed widespread pessimism about Scotland’s economic outlook.

The Understanding Scotland: economy survey shows that households’ are continuing to cut their spending and go without necessities, despite many attempting to boost their income in different ways.

Intentions to cut spending have increased for every good and service listed in the survey since Understanding Scotland began, posing a big challenge for the Scottish economy.

The public mood on the economy has moved dramatically in the last 12 months. Just 1 in 10 Scots think the economy works primarily in their own interests, whilst 8 in 10 think it works primarily in the interests of the wealthy.

As we enter into economic recession and the UK faces its biggest drop in living standards on record, understanding people’s perceptions and behaviours is essential for all decision-makers.

Read more:

• Press release - Scots continue to cut spending.

• Read Shona McCarthy’s blog - The lifeblood of our economy is in peril.

• Watch the launch event recording here.

Research: The Great Risk Transfer - have we got the balance right?

How many people have the knowledge and time to manage the financial risks they face in life? To what extent does it matter?

We partnered with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) to explore these questions. We aimed to find out more about what people in Scotland understand to be the key risks in relation to their long-term financial wellbeing and what helps and holds them back from addressing them.

Our engagement with people in Scotland was designed to build on recent work carried out by the IFoA which has been exploring the ongoing trend of transferring risks from institutions – such as employers, the state, and financial services providers – to individuals.

The IFoA calls this the ‘Great Risk Transfer’ describing it as posing one of the most significant yet little understood social, financial, and political challenges of our time. The changes described in this work show that far greater responsibility is being placed on individuals for managing their lifelong financial wellbeing than has been the case for most people living in Scotland since the establishment of the modern welfare state.

The Great Risk Transfer research showed that the causes of this trend are complex. They include increasing life expectancy, technological advances, changes in financial regulation and political choices. The IFoA highlighted four important areas of risk transfer: pensions, work, health and insurance. Our work was designed to find out more about relevant perceptions of risk in the Scottish population and how people respond to risks which can affect their financial wellbeing.

We explored people’s awareness of the Great Risk Transfer and their ability to manage and respond to financial risks. This revealed two interlinked themes which have implications for policymakers and others interested in either mitigating against or rebalancing responsibility for the relevant risks.

• Cultural – what people know, how they feel and what they do to manage risk

• Structural – the wider social and economic system

Our work commenced in December 2021 and concluded as inflation grew to levels not seen since the early 1980s, with rapidly-increasing fuel, energy and food prices dominating the headlines. This comes at a time when wages and social security payments have generally not kept pace with inflation, leading to widespread acknowledgement of a significant rise in the cost of living.

Not surprisingly, many of the people we spoke to were focused on immediate financial challenges. These included high housing costs, insecure tenancies and jobs, low incomes and debt, and, for some retired people, the challenge of living on a fixed income. This report is structured around four key areas which emerged strongly in our research:

• Knowledge and awareness of risks to financial wellbeing

• Trust in information providers

• Stress, fear, stigma and embarrassment

• Ability to access and understand guidance and information

Understanding Scotland: Economy - August 2022

New research produced in partnership between the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership on economic attitudes and behaviours has revealed widespread anxiety and pessimism about Scotland’s economic outlook.

The Understanding Scotland: economy survey shows that despite households’ best efforts to cut their outgoings, the support on offer from governments is widely seen as inadequate.

Eighty per cent of people have already cut down on leisure and/or non-essentials, and over a quarter of people are skipping or cutting down on meals to save money.

Since starting this regular survey last year, sadly most people have seen their financial situation deteriorate. With three in ten people now losing sleep due to financial stress, and over a quarter skipping or cutting meals.

There are obvious consequences for the economy, labour market and people’s health. This is essential data to help inform the actions of decision-makers.

Read more:

• Press release - Press release: nine in ten Scots anticipate a recession and worsening inflation.

• Watch the event recording here.

Understanding Scotland: Economy - May 2022

A new survey produced in partnership between the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership has revealed widespread anxiety about Scotland’s economic outlook. The survey measures people’s attitudes and behaviours to build a picture of the public’s perceptions of the economy.

Read more.

Briefing paper: What is open data and why does it matter?

Open data that can be freely used, re-used, and redistributed, has the potential to drive innovative solutions to some of Scotland’s biggest challenges. An open data culture leads to improved government, economic growth, insight, and a more participatory democracy.  However, despite the benefits demonstrated by those leading the way in open data, Scotland is moving at a glacial pace and the gap with other countries is widening.

In 2015, the Scottish Government launched its Open Data Strategy which set out its vision that, by 2020, Scotland will value data and responsibly make use of it in order to improve public services and deliver wider societal and economic benefits for all. 

Since 2015, Scotland’s data has been ‘open by default’ but progress remains slow and over half of councils still make no open data provision. Although the Scottish Government permits the reuse of core website content, 30 of the 32 local councils do not. Our briefing paper indicates that over 95% of the data that could and should be open is still locked up, at an estimated annual cost to the Scottish economy of just over £2bn.

Globally, governments and political unions, including the EU, prioritised actions which in many cases overtake Scotland’s progress in the delivery of Open Government data plans. This includes creative use of open data from countries including Kenya, Romania, Mexico, Honduras, Paraguay and Uruguay. Urgent action is needed to ensure Scotland doesn’t miss out. 

Our briefing paper, published in partnership with Open Data Scotland by lead author Ian Watt, calls for a number of specific actions from national and local government, as well as large institutions such as the NHS and Scottish Universities, to address the issue including:

• Scottish Government adopting open data as a core part of their digital strategy with appropriate resource

• Creation of a national open data portal

• Development of common open data publishing standards for Scotland

• Working together with UK Government and commercial partners to accelerate superfast broadband provision as called for in DHI’s previously published paper on Levelling up high speed broadband

Research: Scotland’s top charity leaders: how diverse are they?

Scotland needs all its current top leaders to actively champion diversity and provide the opportunities to ensure faster progress. More equal societies have higher productivity, and high productivity allows more investment to create more equal societies.

The David Hume Institute measures the diversity of Scotland’s top leaders. For the first time in our analysis this includes the leaders of the top 300 charities by income. As major influencers and lobbyists who impact on all parts of our society, charity leaders have a key role in making sure that their leadership is representative of the communities they serve.

The top 300 charities by income represent just 1% of the total charities in Scotland and control over £10 billion each year - 73% of the sector's total annual income - but their leaders are not representative of the communities they serve.

66% Male

34% Female

2% Ethnic minorities

The research, which analyses the backgrounds of the chairs and chief executives of the 300 highest income charities in Scotland, finds that:

• Only 1 in 3 leaders (34%) are women and only 1 in 50 (2%) are black or Asian, compared to 10% female and 1% ethnic minorities in business and investment leaders.

• 1 in 25 (4%) hold a top leadership position in another one of the top 300 charities. 

The research showed the picture is not uniform across the top 300 charities which include universities, colleges, housing associations, fee-paying schools, health and social care charities. 

Charitable status comes with high levels of public trust and tax breaks, as well as the legal responsibility to deliver public benefit. But not all organisations are open about who is in control. It is difficult for the public to hold people to account if they don’t know who they are.

The research recommends an extension of the Scottish Charity Regulator’s (OSCR) powers to create a publicly searchable register of charity trustees to bring them in line with company directors. This change will increase transparency and enable monitoring on diversity. 

Increasing diversity of thought is in everyone’s interests as it helps avoid the pitfalls of group think, - where similar people think or make decisions as a group, resulting in unchallenged decision-making, and improves risk management and productivity. More equal societies have higher productivity, and high productivity allows more investment to create more equal societies. 

Briefing paper: Levelling up high speed broadband

Levelling up access to high speed broadband in Scotland is vital for rural communities currently left behind. Our new briefing paper looks at the roll-out so far and potential for faster progress on this vital infrastructure.

Internet connectivity has become essential for modern life and business is virtually impossible without it. It is critical for productivity and regional equality, and supports education as well as access to public services. 

Areas of rural Scotland yet to access high speed broadband are at risk of increasing outward migration accentuating the already ageing population.

The UK Government has stated its intention to deliver infrastructure that improves everyday life across the UK. The two recent financial commitments from the UK Gigabit scheme partnering with the Scottish Government R100 scheme to extend the reach are welcome.

This paper looks at the physical provision of infrastructure not issues related to access as a result of poverty.

The Scottish and UK Governments must complete faster rollout to all rural communities as part of the levelling up agenda and to support economic recovery from Covid-19. 

The Economics of Climate Change Policy in Scotland

HOP 73. The Economics of Climate Change Policy in Scotland

Nick Hanley

Establishing Competitive Economic Advantage in the Scottish Economy

HOP 61. Establishing Competitive Economic Advantage in the Scottish Economy

Alf Young

More or Less Competitive? A Case Study of the Scottish Economy

HOP 51. More or Less Competitive? A Case Study of the Scottish Economy

Professor Sir Donald MacKay