Blog: Flexible Working - productive vs reductive debate?
Lynn Houmdi discusses home working vs return to office in the context of productivity. Why is the debate so often over simplified?
27st January 2025
by Lynn Houmdi
Lynn Houmdi is founder of Flexible Working Scotland, Co-creator of Making Work Work and Senior Manager, The Challenges Group. She supports people - particularly women - to find or create meaningful work that works with all the other commitments and enjoyment of life. Prior to this Lynn had a career in public policy and diplomacy.
Last week we witnessed another wave of media attention on flexible working, prompted largely by the BBC Panorama episode which aired on 20 January, “Should we still be working from home?”
In recent months, we have seen a surge of RTO (return to office) mandates, calling employees back into the office for all or part of the week and reversing policies put in place during the pandemic.
In the media, the flexible working debate is often over-simplified as a binary: in the office or working from home. In fact, there are literally hundreds of flexible working patterns, because every variant could be combined with one or more others. For example, someone might work part-time, hybrid. Another employee might have flexible start and finish times to their day while working remotely.
Evidence based decisions?
There is a body of research emerging which suggests that decisions around RTO are not being taken on the basis of evidence around productivity but on personal bias (by older, male CEOs);[1] on the basis of sector trends (everyone else is, so we had better); to reassert control over employees, blaming them for bad firm performance;[2] or as a means to reduce headcount without redundancies.[3] Research published in November 2024 by recruitment platform Indeed found that 44% of managers and 55% of employees felt RTO was less about purpose and more about keeping up appearances.[4]
In assessing whether a particular form of flexible working is good for productivity, firms need to first be able to measure productivity. In some industries, this is simple - number of calls answered or number of lines coded. In many others, it is much more complex.
Productivity may be improved by the time or location of work. While someone may feel productive ploughing through emails at home, are they also productive in the office catching up with colleagues? On the other hand, too much time at home may lead to isolation, impacting productivity and belonging in the longer term. How do we measure this?
It is also necessary to understand the fundamental role of two important - and interrelated - elements of productivity: good managerial practice (including performance management) and trust. According to the Chartered Management Institute, over 80% of managers are so-called accidental managers, meaning they took on managerial responsibilities without formal training. Someone who is ill-equipped to manage people they can see from their desk is unlikely to be able to manage well when team members are working flexibly.
Trust is vital.
Only a good manager can engender trust. Trust is vital in employee engagement, retention, productivity and wellbeing. The most efficient scenario is one where an employer does not take on people who are not trustworthy, manages performance supportively and well, and does not act in a way which undermines trust. However, life is not only more complex than tabloids suggest, businesses do not always operate efficiently.
Despite an apparent dislike of remote working among some prominent senior leaders, it is enabling a greater supply of labour, as more disabled workers, women and parents access work. It is a magnet for talent, meaning firms can recruit sought-after skills from a much wider radius. It is also driving technological advances and investment.
Nick Bloom, the Stanford Professor featured in the Panorama programme wrote in a paper for the IMF that the impact of remote working depends on how it is managed. He goes on to say:
“While the micro productivity impacts on any individual firm may be neutral, the huge power of labour market inclusion means that the aggregate macro impact is likely to be positive.”
And while he acknowledges the negative impact on city centre retail and commercial property prices, retail spend is being displaced to suburbs and commercial property has the potential to be repurposed for housing.[1]
In that frustrating way that real life is often more complex than tabloid headlines would suggest, one size does not fit all. Not only for individuals, but for businesses. As managers and leaders, we need to move away from fluffy phrases such as “flexible working” towards honest, evidence-based discussions of how, where and when people deliver their best work.
Happy workers are productive workers.
If we accept that diversity is good for business, then a greater diversity of working patterns is good for individuals, for businesses and for the economy, because diverse workforces are not built on the assumption that everyone delivers their best work in the same way.
The reductionist debate of remote vs. the office is unhelpful, not least in erasing the experience of many front-line and customer-facing employees and key workers who wish they had the choice.
Ends
References
[1] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nick-bloom-stanford_three-papers-analyzed-1200-us-return-to-activity-7250871032759099392-qYVI
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4675401
[3] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nick-bloom-stanford_employees-appear-to-be-pushing-back-more-activity-7272263800437764097-ocrj
[4] https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/return-to-office-appearance/
Image credit: sharing thumbnail image by Adolfo Félix free from Unsplash 27.1.25
Blog: The 2025 Global Risks Report
Olga Murray discusses the 2025 WEF Global Risk Report and strategies that can help companies build resilience.
21st January 2025
by Olga Murray
Olga Murray is a specialist climate and ESG advisor to board directors and law firms around the world. She is the Founder of Private Goodness which trains executives and lawyers, wins International CSR Excellence Awards, and delivers Innovate-UK funded projects.
This blog discusses what we can learn from the 2025 World Economic Forum annual report on Global Risks and strategies that can help companies build resilience.
Last week the World Economic Forum released its annual Global Risks Report which explores the key risks facing the world over the next decade. The report brings together the collective intelligence of over 900 global leaders across business, government, academia and civil society, as well as 100 thematic experts and risk specialists.
The report concludes most severe risks over the next two years are misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, state-based armed conflict and societal polarisation.
While over the ten years, the top four severe risks are all environment-related: extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to Earth systems, and natural resource shortages.
Reference: Global Risks Report 2025, Figure C, page 8
Environment
The report begins with a stark and concerning assessment: 2024 saw six of the nine “planetary boundaries” for environmental health crossed, with a seventh boundary in jeopardy.(1) These boundaries are critical in maintaining the stability of the world’s life support system, including our economies and societies.
Climate change is an underlying driver of several other risks that rank highly, for example, involuntary migration or displacement.
While pollution doesn't dominate the news cycle, it is the world’s largest environmental risk factor for disease and premature deaths. Its impacts are unequal, with 92% of pollution-related deaths and the greatest burden of related economic losses occurring in low- and middle-income countries.(2)
State-based armed conflict
Global Risks Reports examine not only the direct impacts of risks - such as humanitarian crises caused by conflict, which can escalate into further conflict and devastation - but also the effects of how those risks are perceived.
Compared with last year, the risk of 'state-based armed conflict' has climbed from number 8 to number 1 in the rankings for 2025, and sits third for 2027.
“Perceived or actual threats from other countries also provide an opening for governments to seize control of narratives and suppress information, perhaps blurring the lines between genuine security considerations and political expedience.
These are all conditions that will help authoritarian regimes consolidate their power and may lead to democratic regimes taking on more authoritarian characteristics.”
World military expenditure increased for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a total of $2.4 trillion, with 2023 seeing a steep rise over 2022. At the same time, there is a declining investment in humanitarian aid and the size of the UN peacekeeping operations has been reduced from over 100,000 peacekeepers in 2016 to around 68,000 in 2024.(3)
The new U.S. administration will play a significant role in shaping events over the next few years. Additionally, we will observe whether tariff-based protectionism might result in a decline in global trade.
Misinformation
The top risk in 2027 is deemed to be misinformation and disinformation. It's increasingly difficult to tell what's true and what isn't, what is AI- and what is human-generated. The report also discusses algorithmic bias:
“Sometimes, the bias can be obvious. For example, in a hiring process, a set of bios used as examples of good candidates might be drawn from a pool of previous candidates, all of whom might have the same gender, race or nationality.
The personal biases of individuals designing the assumptions of the model can also play a role in leading to unjust outcomes”
Inequality and Societal polarisation
“This is an important pair of risks to watch, given how related they can be to bouts of social instability, and in turn to domestic political and to geostrategic volatility.”
This year the Global Risks Report focuses on demographic trends and pensions crises and labour shortages that can follow.
“Globally, the number of people aged 65 and older is expected to increase by 36%, from 857 million in 2025 to 1.2 billion in 2035.(4)”
Sub-Saharan Africa is home to many countries with youthful demographics but according to the International Labour Organisation, 72% of young adult workers (aged 25 to 29) in the region are engaged in forms of employment classified as “insecure”.(6)
One of the key challenges in the coming decade will be to generate enough good and secure employment.
Corporate Resilience Strategies
Although there are numerous risks on the horizon, companies can take proactive steps to safeguard their future. Here are the top five strategies businesses can implement to effectively prepare for the challenges ahead.
Diversify supply chains
Even with insights from the world’s leading risk experts, unexpected events still occur. To prepare for these uncertainties, companies should test and diversify their supply chains. Incorporate worst-case scenario planning to address the various risks outlined in this blog, ensuring resilience against disruptions.
2. Accelerate your company's green transition
Climate-related risks are expected to dominate the coming decade. Companies must accelerate their transition to greener practices, not only to meet environmental goals but also to help their communities and clients adapt to future climate-related challenges. Proactively integrating sustainability into your business strategy will be key to long-term resilience.
3. Enhance flexible work policies
To support a diverse and adaptive workforce, companies should expand their flexible work policies, offering options for employees to leave and rejoin the workforce at different life stages.
In addition, organisations can prioritise building cross-generational teams and investing in skill development to create a dynamic and inclusive work environment.
4. Boost digital literacy
Digital literacy is essential for employees to critically evaluate data, recognise misinformation and make informed decisions. Companies should invest in training programs that enhance these skills, enabling employees to navigate the increasingly complex digital landscape with confidence.
5. Forster collaboration and trust
The report emphasises that "by deepening honest dialogue and acting urgently to mitigate the risks that lie ahead, we can rebuild trust and together create stronger, more resilient economies and societies."
Final Words
This statement from last year’s report remains very relevant:
“The future is not fixed. A multiplicity of different futures is conceivable over the next decade. Although this drives uncertainty in the short term, it also allows room for hope.
Alongside global risks and the era-defining changes underway lie unique opportunities to rebuild trust, optimism and resilience in our institutions and societies.”
In spite of the many challenges the world is confronting, this analysis urges us not to give up, but to redouble our efforts in building a better future.
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Planetary Boundaries – defining a safe operating space for humanity, https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/output/infodesk/planetary-boundaries.
(2) Fuller, Richard, Philip J Landrigan, Kalpana Balakrishnan, et al., “Pollution and health: a progress update”, The Lancet Planet Health, vol. 6, 2022, pp. e535-e547, https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanplh/ PIIS2542-5196(22)00090-0. pdf.
(3) United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, Global Peacekeeping Data, 31 August 2024, https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/ data.
(4) United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2024, https://population.un.org/wpp/.
(5) International Labour Organization (ILO), Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024: Sub-Saharan Africa, August 2024, https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/Sub-Saharan%20Africa%20GET%20Youth%202024_0.pdf.
(6) International Monetary Fund (IMF), Regional Economic Outlook – Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2024, https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2024/04/19/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-april-2024.
*This blog is kindly reproduced with the permission of Olga Murray, Founder of Private Goodness