Blog: Scotland’s declining population – a crisis looming?
Scotland is the only UK nation predicting a population decline after 2028. What are the implications and what needs to happen to prepare demographic change?
Blog by Eric Hildrew, Communications Lead, David Hume Institute
28 April 2022
As demographers, you might think Esther Roughsedge and Michael Anderson deal firmly with hard facts, however as they were keen to stress at our recent event on Scotland’s changing populations, predicting future population size is a practice laced with uncertainty. In the 1930s, it was estimated that Scotland’s population by the first quarter of the 21st century could be as low as 1.5m (fewer than now live in the central belt alone), though thankfully methods of projection have also improved since then.
So the headline of recently released figures from National Records Scotland – that Scotland’s population will peak at 5.48m in 2028 before declining, making Scotland the only UK nation to forecast a downturn – should be treated with caution. If accurate, a 1.5% decline would put Scotland in the company of Italy, Slovenia, and Finland (all predicting similar reductions) but significantly more stable than either Iceland (predicting 30% growth in population) or Latvia (23% decline).
Graph courtesy of National Records Scotland.
What is more certain is that whether births, deaths, and migration combine to decrease or grow Scotland’s overall population, the age profile of the country is going to change dramatically. In just 23 years’ time, Scotland is expected to have almost a quarter less children and almost a third more over 65s. The proportion of working age people is also expected to decline, particularly in the 30-and-under age-range. The Scottish Government established a population taskforce in 2019 to investigate barriers to having children in light of the country’s steadily declining birth rate, but current estimates don’t predict a significant change in this trend is on the horizon.
To complicate this picture, we don’t know exactly how these changes will be distributed across our towns, cities and rural areas, but we do know that population decline will affect some areas more than others, with west, south west Scotland and the islands likely to see steeper a drop than central and eastern areas. On a more granular level, specific council areas are likely to see significant decline while others nearby grow, creating markedly different pressures and life experiences for residents.
Graph courtesy of National Records Scotland.
These changes have huge implications for local, national, and UK governments. From the size of Scotland’s tax base and the UK Government block grant, to education, housing and social care provision, matching resources with demand will be an ongoing challenge. Much like climate change and inequality, population change is an underlying structural issue which outlives any election cycle or immediate crisis.
Scotland’s slow but steady population growth this century has been fuelled not by babies but by migration, specifically (until Brexit) from the EU though also from the rest of the UK. Other countries have tried incentivising couples to have more children, but there is little evidence to suggest this approach works. Uncertainty about future circumstances such as home ownership and job security is unlikely to be assuaged by modest cash incentives or tax breaks.
Instead, an effective adaptation strategy will need to reconsider outdated attitudes to ageing and older people, ensuring that they stay economically and physically active for longer as well as being offered better options to combat loneliness, isolation, and declining health. The delivery of effective social care must be seen as an investment, not a cost.
Scotland has been shaped by outward and, more recently, by inward migration. As the trajectory of our population growth begins to diverge from that of other UK nations, so must our ability to implement a devolved migration policy which fits the needs of our labour market and which encourages movement of labour to those parts of Scotland most affected by population decline in the years to come.
Population change is inevitable, but its consequences are not.
Blog: The migration debate is moving on
As more becomes known about the UK Government’s future approach to migration, the debate is moving on, just like the migrants.
Blog by Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute
20th February 2020
Confession: I am a migrant. Generations of my family have moved within the UK for work. Like many migrants, I chose a place I wanted to live because of the quality of life and found a series of jobs that have enabled me to stay.
Many headlines yesterday on the latest UK migration policy announcement seem to forget migrants have choices.
I attended three events in the last three days related to different aspects of Scotland’s future labour market and migration. The discussion in Scotland could not feel more different to the Westminster driven headlines.
The panel at yesterday’s event included representatives from the farming and hospitality industries. The audience included representatives from social care and other industries. All were completely dismayed by the latest proposals announced. Frustration was voiced at the amount of time spent feeding data into the Migration Advisory Committee and to Home Office officials, as well as hosting UK Government Minister visits only to find the proposals show no sign of being listened to.
Data and evidence seems to have been dismissed. The numbers don’t add up. And, the conversation, shut down.
For instance, the figures for agricultural workers quoted at 10,000 is the number that is needed for Scotland alone. NFU states the minimum number needed for the whole of the UK is 70,000.
What has been proposed is not what was promised throughout the Brexit debate – an Australian points based system.
Is that because the Australian system is a regional points based system with variations to target different needs across the country? The Australian system has seen migration rise, not fall, as is the stated aim of the UK Government policy.
However, the hostile rhetoric means migrants that have choices and are already voting with their feet. The fall in the pound means it is no longer so attractive for migrants to work in the UK as they can earn more other countries.
The General Teaching Council for Scotland has already seen significant drop in applications from European Countries. The numbers have “fallen off a cliff”.
Only time will tell if the welcoming “Scotland is Open” message being promoted by the Scottish Government will cut through internationally over the hostile message from the UK Government. If it doesn’t, Scotland with already low unemployment, will face stark challenges in many industries.
The work of the British Council in Scotland published this week on Soft Power shows this will become increasingly important.
Valuing our values was at the heart of the discussion on Soft Power. Scotland is respected across the world for its values, which are critical for building relationships and our international reputation.
Scotland is now campaign poster on the London tube, February 14 2020.
We know from our recent work on Scotland’s labour market, Who Will Do the Jobs? that attracting migrants to work in Scotland will be essential to sustain public services. This is a discussion of hearts as well as minds.
Understanding soft power and its ability to influence migration will be critical for this.
Thinking closer to home, Scotland already has net inward migration from the rest of the UK.
People are moving here because of the better quality of life and progressive policies. The latest Scotland is Now campaign aims to increase this further.
Having lived in Scotland for over 25 years, I love that our values are different from the south of England where I grew up – the daughter of a Scottish migrant. I still appreciate the differences including small everyday demonstrations of community and kindness showing distinct values.
The climate emergency has focussed minds across the world on the importance of natural and social capital.
Scotland’s values, its natural and social capital will be increasingly important for the future of our economy and our prosperity.
Blog: Migration discussion needs open hearts and minds
Blog by Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute
27th January 2020
At the launch of the Scottish Government’s policy paper “Migration, helping Scotland Prosper” today, it is clear we need open hearts and minds for Scotland to flourish.
The policy paper clearly lays out Scotland’s distinct demographic challenges. The David Hume Institute research report Who will do the jobs? (September 2019) is quoted and our Autumn events with Jonathan Portes, Michael Anderson and Graeme Roy discussed this complex issue in depth.
All the evidence shows migrants are critical to the Scottish economy. They are an important part of our working age population which funds our public services. Many of Scotland’s rural communities are dependent on migrant workers.
However, too often in conversations we have seen recently elsewhere in the UK, evidence and reasoned arguments don’t matter. Food can rot in the fields because migrant labour no longer feels welcome, as long as the individual’s idea of a prosperous post Brexit future prevails. The pigs in blankets shortage may have been considered amusing by some but it was another sign of labour supply issues.
The message today from the First Minister was clear – Scotland is open. But do all our communities feel that way? Some of the views from the recent citizen assembly show they do not.
The Scottish Government policy paper clearly makes the case for a different approach to migration in Scotland. However, when it is published on the same day the Scottish Government launches a Hate Crime fund for places of worship, it’s an indication much more needs to be done to appeal to people’s hearts to create a welcoming and tolerant Scotland for everyone to prosper together.