Blog: Prioritising priorities for economic recovery
We are moving into new phase of the Covid-19 public health crisis. The sudden and dramatic disruption of the shutdown triggered an economic shock far bigger than anything in recent years. Now thoughts are turning to the foundations for economic recovery. Will they be the same as before the crisis?
Blog by Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute
20th April 2020
We are moving into a new phase of the Covid-19 public health crisis and thoughts are turning to the foundations for economic recovery.
The sudden and dramatic disruption of the shutdown, triggered an economic shock far bigger than anything we have in recent years. In a webinar, Adair Turner said the number one priority should be increasing consumption to help GDP return to pre-coronavirus levels. Many economists are emphasing the need to make this a V-shaped shock, a sharp decline followed by a quick sustained economic recovery.
But the shutdown has also provoked much reflection on how we are living our lives, both individually and collectively.
Post-pandemic we will still have a climate emergency. The world’s resources are still finite. Encouraging those that have money to spend unsustainably might not be the best way forward.
There is a chance to think about established norms. For instance, will long complicated global supply chains still be desirable?
Food security has fallen off the Government’s radar in recent years but an increasing number of people have taken action to grow their own food according to figures from the Royal Horticultural Society. Is this a sign of loss of trust in supply chains?
Acting locally doesn't have to be a substitute for thinking globally, it can be an ally.
The Scottish Government was the first in the world to sign up to the Sustainable Development Goals. Now more than ever before, these goals need to underlie decision making and ensure that it is not just the industry that shouts the loudest or has the best lobbying that secures public funding.
Scotland would not be alone in considering this as a chance to rethink the path ahead. A group of 180 political decision-makers, business leaders, trade unions, campaign groups and think tanks urged the EU to adopt green stimulus measures. Amsterdam has already shown leadership in announcing it is working with economist Kate Raworth, author of Doughnut Economics on delivering a “Doughnut City”.
In Denmark bold leadership from the government means companies which pay out dividends, buy back own shares or are registered in tax havens won’t be eligible for any of the aid programs. Will other countries follow this lead?
Fears of the economic deficit must not be allowed to crowd out smart thinking. There are very strong reasons for not returning to business as usual so propositions aimed at taking us back to things as they were are particularly unlikely to constitute the best approach.
Constructing a positive way forward will involve embracing the complexity of our future choices.
The Scottish Government must hold strong to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and emissions reductions targets, and ensure any precious public money invested to reboot the economy, does maximum public good.
Blog: The migration debate is moving on
As more becomes known about the UK Government’s future approach to migration, the debate is moving on, just like the migrants.
Blog by Susan Murray, Director, David Hume Institute
20th February 2020
Confession: I am a migrant. Generations of my family have moved within the UK for work. Like many migrants, I chose a place I wanted to live because of the quality of life and found a series of jobs that have enabled me to stay.
Many headlines yesterday on the latest UK migration policy announcement seem to forget migrants have choices.
I attended three events in the last three days related to different aspects of Scotland’s future labour market and migration. The discussion in Scotland could not feel more different to the Westminster driven headlines.
The panel at yesterday’s event included representatives from the farming and hospitality industries. The audience included representatives from social care and other industries. All were completely dismayed by the latest proposals announced. Frustration was voiced at the amount of time spent feeding data into the Migration Advisory Committee and to Home Office officials, as well as hosting UK Government Minister visits only to find the proposals show no sign of being listened to.
Data and evidence seems to have been dismissed. The numbers don’t add up. And, the conversation, shut down.
For instance, the figures for agricultural workers quoted at 10,000 is the number that is needed for Scotland alone. NFU states the minimum number needed for the whole of the UK is 70,000.
What has been proposed is not what was promised throughout the Brexit debate – an Australian points based system.
Is that because the Australian system is a regional points based system with variations to target different needs across the country? The Australian system has seen migration rise, not fall, as is the stated aim of the UK Government policy.
However, the hostile rhetoric means migrants that have choices and are already voting with their feet. The fall in the pound means it is no longer so attractive for migrants to work in the UK as they can earn more other countries.
The General Teaching Council for Scotland has already seen significant drop in applications from European Countries. The numbers have “fallen off a cliff”.
Only time will tell if the welcoming “Scotland is Open” message being promoted by the Scottish Government will cut through internationally over the hostile message from the UK Government. If it doesn’t, Scotland with already low unemployment, will face stark challenges in many industries.
The work of the British Council in Scotland published this week on Soft Power shows this will become increasingly important.
Valuing our values was at the heart of the discussion on Soft Power. Scotland is respected across the world for its values, which are critical for building relationships and our international reputation.
Scotland is now campaign poster on the London tube, February 14 2020.
We know from our recent work on Scotland’s labour market, Who Will Do the Jobs? that attracting migrants to work in Scotland will be essential to sustain public services. This is a discussion of hearts as well as minds.
Understanding soft power and its ability to influence migration will be critical for this.
Thinking closer to home, Scotland already has net inward migration from the rest of the UK.
People are moving here because of the better quality of life and progressive policies. The latest Scotland is Now campaign aims to increase this further.
Having lived in Scotland for over 25 years, I love that our values are different from the south of England where I grew up – the daughter of a Scottish migrant. I still appreciate the differences including small everyday demonstrations of community and kindness showing distinct values.
The climate emergency has focussed minds across the world on the importance of natural and social capital.
Scotland’s values, its natural and social capital will be increasingly important for the future of our economy and our prosperity.