Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2023

The most recent data from the David Hume Institute and Diffley Partnership’s regular economy tracker reveals a mixed picture of public opinion on the economy.

The economic outlook from Scots remains bleak with 62% thinking that general economic conditions will be worse in a years’ time (although this is down very slightly from 66% in February) and 45% think their personal financial situation will be worse in a years’ time (down from 48% in February).

However, while we have seen a reduction in the number of people thinking that things will be worse, optimism is not rising. Many Scots think that the economic outlook will remain the same over the next 12 months suggesting that they think that the costs and challenges they face are here to stay.

Is this a sign of people adjusting to a new normal?

In order to meet increased costs, many Scots are running down their savings, turning to credit and stopping paying into pensions:

• 4 in 10 Scots (42%) report having taken money out of their savings to
  cover higher costs

• 1 in 4 have used a credit card to make for purchases that they wouldn’t
  usually

• 1 in % have used ‘buy now pay later’ schemes to cover everyday
  spending

• A small but increasing number of Scots have stopped contributing to a
  pension (7%)

Turning to high-cost borrowing options for everyday essentials can cause the accumulation of substantial debt which will affect people’s lives for many years to come.

The Understanding Scotland: economy tracker is produced in partnership between the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership. The survey gathers economic attitudes and insights from more than 2,000 members of the Scottish adult population every 3 months to track changes over time.

Is trust an undervalued ingredient for a thriving economy?

Discussion paper by Charlie Woods

Published May 2023

Labour market disputes, concerns about public contracts and declining trust in government and institutions have risen up the news agenda in recent times.  All of these things impact on our economy but the importance of trust in building thriving economies, as an issue in its own right, feels under-explored. 

When governments talk of increasing productivity and economic growth, are they focusing sufficiently on the challenges posed by an unhappy workforce or the hours lost in contract disputes?  This paper argues that, although improving levels of  trust can take time, it is time well spent as it saves resources in the long term.

This paper aims to stimulate discussion about the role that trust and more collaborative relationships can play in strengthening the economy. It is written from the perspective of experience in working to stimulate economic development, help resolve commercial conflicts, facilitate dialogue and develop more effective relationships. 

This paper builds on previous David Hume Institute work on the labour market including the 2020 briefing paper on the Danish model of Flexicurity. 

About the Author

Charlie Woods has wide-ranging experience of industry, commerce, and public and private sector organisations, ranging from SMEs to government. He was previously Director of Strategy and Chief Economist at Scottish Enterprise and is now executive director of the Scottish Universities Insight Institute and Vice-Chair of the Economic Development Association Scotland (EDAS).

Charlie is an Associate of Core Solutions and has extensive mediation and facilitation experience in a wide range of fields including planning, family business, management, PPP contracts, transport infrastructure, government policy and professional services.  

Latest Understanding Scotland: Economy

The most recent data from the David Hume Institute and Diffley Partnership’s regular economic survey reveals a mixed picture of public opinion on the economy: while overwhelming pessimism coupled and evidence of harsh financial realities for households persists, people’s predictions for the next year appear less dire than in previous waves of data collection. Whether this is a sign of people adjusting to a new normal, or genuinely feeling things are improving, remains to be seen.

Scots are continuing to struggle to make ends meet as dissatisfaction with income levels remains high and people carry on cutting their discretionary spending levels in response to rising prices. On top of this people are being pushed into forgoing basic necessities, engaging in risky financial behaviours, and looking to change jobs or take on extra hours.

New questions for this iteration have displayed a stark financial fragility across the population, although this is not experienced equally. A significant minority of people are not confident that they could pay an emergency expense of £100 without having to borrow or take out a loan, and this number sharply increases for an emergency expense of £500. For those in the most deprived areas of Scotland, these numbers are much higher.

Read the press release.

Latest Understanding Scotland: Economy

Latest research insights from the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership on economic attitudes and behaviours has revealed widespread pessimism about Scotland’s economic outlook.

The Understanding Scotland: economy survey shows that households’ are continuing to cut their spending and go without necessities, despite many attempting to boost their income in different ways.

Intentions to cut spending have increased for every good and service listed in the survey since Understanding Scotland began, posing a big challenge for the Scottish economy.

The public mood on the economy has moved dramatically in the last 12 months. Just 1 in 10 Scots think the economy works primarily in their own interests, whilst 8 in 10 think it works primarily in the interests of the wealthy.

As we enter into economic recession and the UK faces its biggest drop in living standards on record, understanding people’s perceptions and behaviours is essential for all decision-makers.

Read the press release.

Research: The Great Risk Transfer - have we got the balance right?

How many people have the knowledge and time to manage the financial risks they face in life? To what extent does it matter?

We partnered with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) to explore these questions. We aimed to find out more about what people in Scotland understand to be the key risks in relation to their long-term financial wellbeing and what helps and holds them back from addressing them.

Our engagement with people in Scotland was designed to build on recent work carried out by the IFoA which has been exploring the ongoing trend of transferring risks from institutions – such as employers, the state, and financial services providers – to individuals.

The IFoA calls this the ‘Great Risk Transfer’ describing it as posing one of the most significant yet little understood social, financial, and political challenges of our time. The changes described in this work show that far greater responsibility is being placed on individuals for managing their lifelong financial wellbeing than has been the case for most people living in Scotland since the establishment of the modern welfare state.

The Great Risk Transfer research showed that the causes of this trend are complex. They include increasing life expectancy, technological advances, changes in financial regulation and political choices. The IFoA highlighted four important areas of risk transfer: pensions, work, health and insurance. Our work was designed to find out more about relevant perceptions of risk in the Scottish population and how people respond to risks which can affect their financial wellbeing.

We explored people’s awareness of the Great Risk Transfer and their ability to manage and respond to financial risks. This revealed two interlinked themes which have implications for policymakers and others interested in either mitigating against or rebalancing responsibility for the relevant risks.

• Cultural – what people know, how they feel and what they do to manage risk

• Structural – the wider social and economic system

Our work commenced in December 2021 and concluded as inflation grew to levels not seen since the early 1980s, with rapidly-increasing fuel, energy and food prices dominating the headlines. This comes at a time when wages and social security payments have generally not kept pace with inflation, leading to widespread acknowledgement of a significant rise in the cost of living.

Not surprisingly, many of the people we spoke to were focused on immediate financial challenges. These included high housing costs, insecure tenancies and jobs, low incomes and debt, and, for some retired people, the challenge of living on a fixed income. This report is structured around four key areas which emerged strongly in our research:

• Knowledge and awareness of risks to financial wellbeing

• Trust in information providers

• Stress, fear, stigma and embarrassment

• Ability to access and understand guidance and information

Understanding Scotland: Economy - August 2022

New research produced in partnership between the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership on economic attitudes and behaviours has revealed widespread anxiety and pessimism about Scotland’s economic outlook.

The Understanding Scotland: economy survey shows that despite households’ best efforts to cut their outgoings, the support on offer from governments is widely seen as inadequate.

Eighty per cent of people have already cut down on leisure and/or non-essentials, and over a quarter of people are skipping or cutting down on meals to save money.

Since starting this regular survey last year, sadly most people have seen their financial situation deteriorate. With three in ten people now losing sleep due to financial stress, and over a quarter skipping or cutting meals.

There are obvious consequences for the economy, labour market and people’s health. This is essential data to help inform the actions of decision-makers.

Read the press release.

Understanding Scotland: Economy - May 2022

A new survey produced in partnership between the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership has revealed widespread anxiety about Scotland’s economic outlook. The survey measures people’s attitudes and behaviours to build a picture of the public’s perceptions of the economy.

Read more.

Research: What do business and investment leaders bring to Team Scotland?

Faster growth in diversity at the top level is needed if Scotland is going to benefit from a wider spectrum of thought leadership to maximise the country’s ability to overcome challenges such as increasing productivity, innovation and improving risk management.

Research from the David Hume Institute looking into the education and diversity background of over 220 business and investment leaders shows that there is little diversity - and less than other sectors analysed in the Institute’s previous work.  

The analysis found that: 

• There are still more leaders called John than there are female leaders (7% John and 5% female)

• One in four (26%) have held positions at four services companies (Accenture, EY, McKinsey, PwC)

• 2 out of 3 (65%) of investment company leaders attended an elite university with 1 in 5 of these attending Oxford or Cambridge.  This compares to 49% of Angel Investment leaders who attended an elite university.

• 9% of investment company leaders are female - falling behind the UK average (13%)

• 20% of angel investor leaders are female - higher gender diversity than others in the business sector

• 31% of the top business leaders also hold positions on other boards, showing a narrow pool of decision makers has significant influence beyond their own companies.  

The David Hume Institute’s research clearly shows limited diversity of Scotland’s top business and investment leaders. Scotland needs its business leaders to not only champion diversity across their organisations, they need to be open to more immediate change at the most senior levels to reap the benefits of more diverse thinking now.

Every business leader must choose to prioritise diversity of thought as we recover from the pandemic if Scotland’s businesses are to increase productivity and resilience to future risks.  For Scotland to be in the Champions League for business and investment we need a more diverse squad available for selection.

Research: What do the Scottish Parliament's new players bring to Team Scotland?

The David Hume Institute measures diversity of Scotland's top leaders, including the Scottish Parliament. The challenges the pandemic has brought mean we need to ensure diversity across decision makers to help recovery because diversity of thought improves organisation performance.

As the representative of people in Scotland, MSPs have a key role to play in helping the public see that leaders can come from all walks of life.

The speed of progress towards education diversity in Parliament is increasing. Now 1 in 5 or 20% of MSPs attended a fee paying school, compared to 1 in 4 (24%) in the last session. By comparison fee-paying pupils make up just 6% of the general population.

Unless the rate of change increases it will be the 2056 election before Parliament reflects the education background of the wider population. 

The 2021 Scottish Parliament elections have rightly been praised for giving Scotland the most diverse Parliament in its history. With greater representation of people of colour, disability, LGBT+ community, young MSPs and female representation, intentional moves by political parties to increase diversity of candidates is leading to a Parliament that more accurately represents its population.

The research also analysed work experience and careers before politics. The 2021 intake of MSPs had a wide range of employment experience before entering the Scottish Parliament. This adds to the range of life experience and skills to draw on when representing people: for constituency case work, contributing to the committees and the chamber. 19% also have previous experience representing people through being local councillors.

Read the full analysis to find out more about the 2021 changes in the Scottish Parliament. The election feels like a milestone in progress towards Scotland becoming a more equal society but there is still a long way to go for the parliament to be representative of the Scottish population and to realise the benefits of greater diversity.

Improving productivity in Scotland’s public services – Policy Lessons

HOP 76. Improving productivity in Scotland’s public services – Policy Lessons

Jo Armstrong

Improving productivity in Scotland’s public services

HOP 74. Improving productivity in Scotland’s public services

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